Changjiang Securities(000783) 中原证券·2024-10-11 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][21]. Core Insights - The company's revenue sources have shown volatility, but the fundamentals are expected to bottom out and recover. The company achieved a revenue of 2.855 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.49%, and a net profit of 787 million yuan, down 28.87% year-on-year [3][5][14]. - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of income from brokerage, asset management, interest net income, and investment income, while the proportion from investment banking and other income has decreased [6][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a significant share transfer, which will strengthen its regional advantages [14][15]. Financial Overview - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 2.21%, down 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 0.23 yuan and 0.27 yuan, respectively, with book value per share (BVPS) expected to be 5.95 yuan and 6.21 yuan [14][15]. - The company’s total assets as of June 30, 2024, were 1478.41 billion yuan, with total equity of 373.54 billion yuan [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The brokerage business net income decreased by 19.05% year-on-year, with significant pressure on seat leasing income [6][8]. - The investment banking segment saw a 44.95% decline in net income, with a notable drop in equity financing activities [8][10]. - Asset management business net income increased by 67.78% year-on-year, driven by rapid growth in public fund business [10][11]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in its performance as market conditions improve, particularly in the equity self-operation segment, which has been a drag on earnings [14][15]. - The report forecasts a revenue of 6.131 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected increase to 6.965 billion yuan in 2025 [18].