GUOYUAN SECURITIES(SZ:000728) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-11 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for Guoyuan Securities, indicating an expected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][26]. Core Views - Guoyuan Securities achieved an operating income of 3.084 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.44% to 1 billion yuan [4][7]. - The company has shown resilience in its brokerage and asset management businesses, with significant improvements in asset management quality and a notable increase in investment income [4][20]. - The report highlights the stability of Guoyuan Securities' overall operating performance, which stands out among small and medium-sized brokerages [20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Guoyuan Securities reported a net profit of 1 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.23 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.52% [4][7]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 2.84%, up by 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [4][7]. Revenue Composition - The revenue composition shifted, with increases in brokerage, asset management, and investment income, while the contributions from investment banking and net interest income decreased [8][20]. - The net income from brokerage services was 441 million yuan, down 8.51% year-on-year, but the company maintained a stable ranking in the industry for agency buying and selling income [10][11]. Asset Management and Investment Income - The asset management business saw a significant increase in net income, up 65.12% year-on-year, with total asset management scale reaching 26.267 billion yuan, a 10.86% increase from the end of 2023 [14][20]. - Investment income, including fair value changes, rose by 49.36% year-on-year, with self-operated investment income reaching a historical high [17][20]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite a decline in margin financing balances, the market share reached a recent high of 1.05% [18][20]. - The report projects EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.47 yuan and 0.50 yuan, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 8.23 yuan and 8.56 yuan [20][24].