YTCO(SH:600066) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-10-11 10:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [3] Core Views - In September 2024, Yutong Bus achieved sales of 3,788 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [1] - The company is expected to see a continuous upward trend in sales for Q4 2024, supported by strong overseas orders and domestic demand driven by government subsidies for replacing old buses [1][2] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy is anticipated to significantly boost domestic demand for buses in the second half of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - September sales showed a recovery trend with large, medium, and light buses selling 1,871, 1,480, and 437 units respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11%, +48%, and -5% [1] - The export of new energy buses in August 2024 reached 1,563 units, a year-on-year increase of 164.02% [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for Yutong Bus from 2024 to 2026 are 3.317 billion, 4.023 billion, and 4.847 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.6, 14.5, and 12.0 [2][3] Market Conditions - The report highlights that the current overseas orders are robust, indicating potential for monthly sales growth in Q4 2024 [1] - The new subsidy policy for urban public transport is expected to enhance the replacement rate of old buses, thereby increasing overall bus demand [1]