Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on MINISO with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong growth potential driven by global expansion and IP-driven retail strategy [2][4] Core Views - MINISO is positioned as a global lifestyle retailer with a focus on IP-driven products, leveraging its two core brands, MINISO and TOP TOY, to drive growth [1][9] - The company has achieved a leading market share in the global and Chinese self-owned brand retail markets, with MINISO holding 6.7% and 11.4% market share respectively, while TOP TOY ranks 7th in the domestic trendy toy market with a 1.1% share [1][9] - MINISO's global store count reached 7,063 by mid-2024, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, particularly through flexible overseas expansion strategies [1][43] Brand and Product Strategy - MINISO operates as a multi-category lifestyle brand, offering 11 product categories including home goods, small electronics, and personal care, with an average of 530 new SKUs launched monthly and a core SKU portfolio of 9,700 items [1][10] - TOP TOY, launched in 2020, focuses on trendy toys, including blind boxes, building blocks, and figurines, and has quickly captured a 1.1% market share in China's trendy toy market [1][10] - The company has established partnerships with over 80 IP licensors, including Disney and Marvel, to enhance its product offerings and brand appeal [1][10] Financial Performance and Projections - MINISO's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 16.57 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.16 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 11% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2.88 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.72 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 12% [2][3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 14x in 2024 to 11x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [2][3] Global Expansion and Market Strategy - MINISO's overseas revenue reached RMB 5.52 billion in FY24, a 44.45% YoY increase, driven by the expansion of 2,753 overseas stores, including 343 directly operated, 338 partner-operated, and 2,072 agent-operated stores [1][43] - The company employs a flexible market entry strategy, using agents to adapt to local markets, reducing regulatory risks and operational costs [1][43] - Asia and the Americas are key markets, contributing 36% and 50% of overseas GMV respectively, with strong growth potential in emerging markets like India and Indonesia [45][22] Competitive Landscape - In the global self-owned brand retail market, MINISO holds a 6.7% market share, ranking first, while in China, it leads with an 11.4% share [1][28] - The trendy toy market is highly fragmented, with the top 5 players holding a 26.4% market share, and TOP TOY ranking 7th with a 1.1% share [1][29] - MINISO differentiates itself through its IP-driven product strategy and efficient supply chain, which supports its competitive pricing and rapid product turnover [31][33] Future Growth Drivers - MINISO plans to continue its global store expansion, with a focus on increasing store efficiency and profitability, particularly in overseas markets [2][43] - The company is transitioning from a low-price retail model to an IP-driven retail strategy, aiming to enhance brand value and customer loyalty [37][39] - With a strong supply chain and global design capabilities, MINISO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for trendy and IP-based products [31][33]
名创优品：超级品牌新十年，全球扩张进行时