Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Huaan Securities·2024-10-11 11:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with estimates ranging from 48 to 52 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 200.45% to 224.81% [1] - The revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to grow by over 20% year-on-year, with online channel revenue expected to increase by approximately 20% to 25% [1] - The company is actively embracing the trend of cost-effective consumption, with a target of 10 billion yuan in revenue for the year appearing achievable [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 3.38 to 3.42 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a growth of 99.13% to 101.43% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 4.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.2% [3] - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 10.41 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 46.3% [3] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 is estimated at 2.47%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 14.9% in 2024, up from 8.7% in 2023 [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2023 to 23.4% in 2024 [3] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 13.89 billion yuan in 2025 and 17.75 billion yuan in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 33.5% and 27.7% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2024 to 2.15 yuan in 2026 [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain efficiency and organizational restructuring to improve profitability [1] - The online channel strategy, particularly through platforms like Douyin, is expected to drive significant growth in sales [1]