藏格矿业：深度报告：钾锂铜三轮驱动，成长空间大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is driven by three main businesses: potassium, lithium, and copper, which are all expanding significantly and contributing to long-term growth potential [2][20]. - The potassium business is positioned as the second-largest producer in China, with stable production and a new expansion project in Laos that will double its capacity [2][40]. - The lithium segment benefits from a cost advantage in salt lake lithium extraction, with future capacity expected to reach 89,000 tons [2][22]. - The copper segment, through its stake in Jilong Copper, is projected to have a significant increase in production capacity, reaching 185,000 tons [2][34]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns with a high dividend policy, maintaining a cash dividend ratio of 80% in 2022 and 73% in 2023 [2][34]. Summary by Sections Potassium Business - The company is the second-largest potassium producer in China, with a stable production of around 1 million tons and plans to expand capacity in Laos to 2 million tons per year [2][40]. - The potassium market is supported by limited downside in prices due to geopolitical factors affecting supply and high import dependency in China [2][40]. Lithium Business - The company has established a significant lithium extraction capacity of 10,000 tons and plans to expand to 89,000 tons through various projects [2][22]. - The cost of lithium production is projected to be 41,000 yuan per ton, placing it on the lower end of the global cost curve [2][22]. Copper Business - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper, which is expected to increase its copper production capacity to 185,000 tons after the completion of expansion projects [2][34]. - Jilong Copper achieved a production of 81,000 tons and a net profit of 2.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [2][34]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 2.43 billion yuan in 2024, 2.48 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.36 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 16, and 9 [3][34]. - The report highlights a significant drop in revenue and net profit in 2024H1 due to falling prices of lithium and potassium, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 37% [2][31]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend ratio of 31.5% in 2024H1 and a low debt-to-asset ratio of 5.2% [2][34].