CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Shanghai Securities·2024-10-12 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has launched new models such as the Deep Blue L07 and Avita 07, leading to a month-on-month sales increase of 14% in September [4][5]. - The company reported September sales of 213,200 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 9.98%, but a month-on-month increase of 13.93% [4][5]. - Cumulative sales from January to September reached 1.905 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [4][5]. - The company is expanding its overseas exports, with September exports exceeding 30,000 units, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 58.18% [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit for 2025 and 2026, projecting net profits of 87.39 billion yuan and 105.61 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Production - In September, the company produced 214,300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 14.70% [4]. - Cumulative production from January to September was 1.7702 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85% [4]. Brand Performance - Sales by brand in September included 172,600 units for self-owned brands, 24,200 units for Changan Ford, and 6,000 units for Changan Mazda [5]. - The self-owned brand sales included 11,600 units for Qiyuan, 22,700 units for Deep Blue, and 4,500 units for Avita [5]. Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve operating revenues of 169.15 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.8% [7]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.72 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.06 yuan, respectively [9]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 18.95X, 15.51X, and 12.84X, respectively [6][9].