CNNP(601985) 长江证券·2024-10-12 08:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Nuclear Power (601985 SH) [4] Core Views - Nuclear power generation declined by 2 74% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 due to concentrated maintenance activities which is a normal operational arrangement and fully incorporated into the annual plan [1][3] - New energy generation reached 24 75 billion kWh up 48 19% YoY helping to offset the decline in nuclear power generation [1][3] - Overall power generation increased by 2 70% YoY despite the short-term pressure from maintenance activities [1][3] - The company's new energy growth rate slowed down in Q3 due to weaker wind and solar resources [4] - The company has a strong pipeline of nuclear and green energy projects ensuring long-term growth potential [4] Financial Performance - The company's commercial power generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 160 39 billion kWh up 2 70% YoY [3] - Nuclear power generation was 135 64 billion kWh down 2 74% YoY mainly due to maintenance at key plants such as Qinshan Sanmen Hainan and Fuqing [3] - New energy generation in Q3 was 8 61 billion kWh up 40 15% YoY but the growth rate slowed down by 6 68 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [4] - The company's installed capacity for new energy reached 24 15 GW including 7 83 GW of wind power and 16 32 GW of photovoltaic power [4] Project Pipeline - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or approved with a total capacity of 20 64 GW [4] - New energy projects under construction have a capacity of 15 05 GW [4] - The Jiangsu Xuyu Phase I project was approved in August 2024 which includes two Hualong One units and one high-temperature gas-cooled reactor [4] Financial Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0 53 yuan 0 60 yuan and 0 66 yuan respectively [4] - The corresponding PE ratios are 20 57x 18 29x and 16 48x [4]