鸿路钢构：Q3整体经营稳健，重视钢结构龙头反转机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations despite a decline in new orders, with a focus on the potential turnaround in the steel structure sector [1]. - The report highlights the impact of government fiscal stimulus and monetary policy adjustments on infrastructure investment, which is expected to benefit the company [4]. - The company is undergoing a transformation towards automation and smart manufacturing, which is anticipated to enhance efficiency and potentially increase valuation in the long term [3]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - Cumulative new orders for Q1-3 2024 reached approximately 21.926 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%, with Q3 alone accounting for 7.57 billion, down 3.74% year-on-year [1]. - Steel structure production for Q1-3 2024 was about 3.2507 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, with Q3 production at 1.1449 million tons, up 1.43% from Q3 2023 [1]. Pricing and Contracts - The average price per ton for new material orders in Q3 2024 ranged from 4,436 to 6,024 yuan, a decrease of 13.22% compared to the range of 4,909.98 to 7,143.76 yuan in Q3 2023 [2]. - The company secured 20 large contracts in Q3 2024, including a significant project in Indonesia, indicating ongoing demand in the manufacturing sector [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 23.539 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 22.855 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a decline of 2.91% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 912.44 million yuan, down 22.63% from 2023 [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 9.1 billion, 10.5 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 9.1, and 7.9 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment driven by government policies, particularly in the fourth quarter [4].