Piotech (688072) 国泰君安·2024-10-12 10:11Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price raised to 190.8 RMB [3][5] - The company is a leader in thin-film deposition equipment, benefiting from both advanced and mature process expansions [3][13] Core Views - The company is expected to see sustained high growth in orders due to its leading position in thin-film deposition equipment [1][3] - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 revenue estimates of 37.47/52.89/72.08 billion RMB, representing YoY growth of 38.5%/41.1%/36.3% [3][14] - The company's net profit is expected to grow rapidly, with 2024-2026 net profit estimates of 821/1,296/1,910 million RMB, representing YoY growth of 23.9%/57.8%/47.4% [3][14] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 and 2023 was 1,706 and 2,705 million RMB, respectively, with YoY growth of 125.0% and 58.6% [2] - Net profit for 2022 and 2023 was 368 and 663 million RMB, respectively, with YoY growth of 438.0% and 79.8% [2] - EPS for 2022 and 2023 was 1.32 and 2.38 RMB, respectively, with ROE of 9.9% and 14.4% [2] Industry and Market Position - The company is the domestic leader in PECVD equipment, with a market share of over 33% in the thin-film deposition market [3][13] - The global thin-film deposition equipment market is expected to reach 296 billion USD by 2025, with PECVD being the largest segment at 33% [47][48] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of both advanced and mature processes, with PECVD usage in advanced processes increasing by 30-50% compared to mature processes [3][13] Product and Technology - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including PECVD, ALD, SACVD, and HDPCVD, with PECVD being the core product [3][20] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in advanced processes, with SACVD being the only domestic company to achieve industrialization, and HDPCVD and ALD equipment passing verification in 2023 [3][20] - The company is also expanding into hybrid bonding equipment, which is expected to open up new growth opportunities in 3D NAND and HBM markets [3][13] Orders and Growth Prospects - The company had 64.23 billion RMB in hand orders at the end of 2023, a 39.57% YoY increase [3][13] - New orders in 2024 are expected to exceed 70 billion RMB, driven by downstream wafer fab expansions [3][13] - The company's revenue from thin-film deposition equipment is expected to grow to 36.0/50.4/68.0 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with hybrid bonding equipment revenue projected to reach 0.64/1.50/2.85 billion RMB [14][15] Valuation - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is estimated at 2.95/4.66/6.86 RMB, with a target price of 190.8 RMB based on PE and PS valuation methods [3][13] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 105.58 in 2022 to 20.37 in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [2][3]