YTCO(SH:600066) Soochow Securities·2024-10-12 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1][3] Core Views - In September 2024, Yutong Bus sold 3,788 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 4%. The production was 3,878 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% but a month-on-month increase of 14% [2] - The sales recovery is attributed to the demand driven by the vehicle replacement policy and a significant recovery in export orders, with customs data indicating a 38% month-on-month increase in export sales in August [2] - The proportion of medium and large buses remains high, accounting for 88% of total sales in September 2024, with a slight increase from the previous month [2] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the bus replacement policy, which includes subsidies for new energy city buses and battery replacements, with an estimated 30,000 units expected to be replaced in 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts Yutong Bus's total revenue for 2024 to be 34.733 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82% [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.50 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.29 times [3] - For 2025 and 2026, the revenue is expected to grow to 41.447 billion yuan and 49.941 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.106 billion yuan and 4.956 billion yuan [3] Market Data - The closing price of Yutong Bus is 25.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 57.297 billion yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.70 [5]