柳工：公司点评：土方机械持续复苏，带动业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Liugong (000528 SZ) [1] Core Views - Liugong's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations with a significant year-over-year increase in net profit and non-GAAP net profit [1] - The company's overseas market expansion has been successful, with overseas revenue accounting for 48 02% of total revenue in H1 2024 [1] - Domestic market recovery in the earthmoving machinery sector has driven growth, particularly in excavators and loaders [1] - Improved profitability due to scale effects, with domestic and overseas gross margins increasing to 29 09% and 18 15% respectively in H1 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 1 239-1 405 billion, up 50-70% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 319-361 million, up 50-70% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 non-GAAP net profit is expected to be RMB 288-330 million, up 182-224% YoY [1] - H1 2024 overseas revenue reached RMB 7 712 billion, up 18 82% YoY [1] - H1 2024 earthmoving machinery revenue was RMB 9 937 billion, up 15 91% YoY [1] Market Performance - Domestic excavator sales in Q2-Q3 2024 increased by 21% and 20% YoY respectively [1] - Domestic loader sales in Q2-Q3 2024 increased by 12% and 9% YoY respectively [1] - Overseas sales of excavators and loaders grew by over 200% YoY in H1 2024 [1] - Overseas sales of wide-body vehicles grew by 55 7% YoY in H1 2024 [1] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB 29 875 billion, RMB 32 950 billion, and RMB 36 853 billion respectively [1] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB 1 633 billion, RMB 2 208 billion, and RMB 2 797 billion respectively [1] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 15X, 11X, and 9X respectively [1] - Net profit margins are expected to be 5 5%, 6 7%, and 7 6% for 2024-2026 respectively [1] Historical Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings from analysts over the past year [7] - Market sentiment analysis shows a strong preference for "Buy" recommendations, with a score of 1 00 indicating a consensus "Buy" rating [6]