柳工：土方机械持续复苏，带动业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.239 to 1.405 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [1] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with overseas revenue exceeding 45% in the first half of 2024, and a year-on-year increase of 18.82% to 7.712 billion yuan [1] - The domestic market for excavators and loaders is recovering, benefiting from the upward cycle of earth-moving machinery, with the company's revenue from this segment reaching 9.937 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 15.91% year-on-year [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company expects a net profit of 3.19 to 3.61 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items for Q3 2024 is projected to be 2.88 to 3.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 182% to 224% [1] Operational Analysis - The company’s overseas market revenue accounted for 48.02% of total revenue in H1 2024, with excavator and loader sales growing over 200% year-on-year [1] - The domestic market for earth-moving machinery has seen a recovery, with excavator sales in Q2 and Q3 2024 increasing by 21% and 20% year-on-year, respectively [1] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margins for domestic and overseas markets in H1 2024 were 29.09% and 18.15%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.12 and 3.88 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report projects the company’s net profit margins to increase to 5.5%, 6.7%, and 7.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 29.875 billion, 32.950 billion, and 36.853 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.633 billion, 2.208 billion, and 2.797 billion yuan, respectively [1]