CYPC(600900) 长江证券·2024-10-14 03:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant increase in hydropower generation, with a total output of approximately 235.814 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.97% [4][5]. - The company’s upstream hydropower stations have shown higher growth rates compared to downstream stations, indicating strong operational resilience [4]. - The ongoing market reforms are expected to provide long-term support for electricity prices, enhancing the company's revenue stability [4][5]. - The company is committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70%, which is expected to provide substantial returns to investors [5]. Summary by Sections Hydropower Generation Performance - The company’s hydropower generation has shown robust growth, with the third quarter output reaching 115.196 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.05% [4]. - The upstream hydropower stations, including Wudongde and Baihetan, have outperformed downstream stations in terms of generation growth rates [4]. Market Environment and Pricing - The hydropower market is undergoing reforms that are expected to stabilize and potentially increase electricity prices in the long term [4]. - The pricing mechanism for electricity transmission has been updated to include a base price plus a floating price, which is anticipated to support revenue [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 1.39, 1.42, and 1.50 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.08, 20.60, and 19.45 [5][10]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 78.112 billion yuan in 2023 to 86.693 billion yuan in 2024 [10].