LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Soochow Securities·2024-10-14 08:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 50%-70% in Q3 2024, aligning with market expectations, with a median estimate of 1.32 billion to 1.40 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% [2] - The company is benefiting from strong sales growth in both domestic and export markets, leading to an increase in market share and improved profitability due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives [2] - The company is focusing on electrification and internationalization, with electric loader sales expected to increase by 159% in H1 2024, and significant growth in overseas revenues for various machinery categories [2] - The completion of the mixed-ownership reform has enhanced operational quality, with stock incentives and private placements aimed at expanding capacity and upgrading smart factories [3] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards, with projected net profits of 1.57 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.81 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16, 12, and 9 times [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to increase from 27.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 39.17 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.86% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 867.81 million yuan in 2023 to 2.81 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 38.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.44 yuan in 2023 to 1.42 yuan in 2026 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 12.40 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 24.60 billion yuan [4] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.42 [4] Financial Data - The company has a total asset value of 46.58 billion yuan in 2023, projected to increase to 60.74 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 60.34% [5]