国药现代：改革成果兑现，盈利能力持续提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company is a comprehensive state-owned pharmaceutical manufacturer, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 718 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.29% [4] - The company experienced a 7.52% year-on-year decrease in revenue, totaling 5.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [4] - The raw material drug segment showed profitability elasticity, with sales revenue of 2.687 billion yuan, up 7.38% year-on-year, accounting for 45.08% of total revenue [4] - The formulation segment faced revenue pressure, with a 14.88% year-on-year decline, generating 3.113 billion yuan, which constituted 52.23% of total revenue [4] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the raw material and intermediate drug segment of 0%/5%/5% from 2024 to 2026, while the formulation segment is projected to grow at -3%/6%/8% during the same period [4] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.024 billion yuan, 12.825 billion yuan, and 13.836 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 1.173 billion yuan, 1.378 billion yuan, and 1.589 billion yuan respectively [5][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.87 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.218 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][9] - The gross margin is projected to be 36.8%, 37.0%, and 37.2% from 2024 to 2026 [9] Business Segment Analysis - The intermediate and raw material drug segment is expected to maintain stable revenue, while the chemical formulation segment is anticipated to face challenges due to price reductions linked to centralized procurement [4][7] - The health segment is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenue increases of 15% annually from 2024 to 2026 [4][7] Valuation - The company is assigned a P/E ratio of 17-22x for 2024, with a reasonable value range of 14.87 to 19.24 yuan per share, translating to a market capitalization range of 19.9 billion to 25.8 billion yuan [5][8]