HMD(002947) 华创证券·2024-10-14 23:05Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to show significant growth, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of 265-320 million yuan (YoY 35.82%-64.01%), with a median of 292.5 million yuan (YoY 49.92%) [1] - The growth is driven by the company's ability to capitalize on the AI industry's development opportunities, the smooth progress of new projects, and the gradual release of production capacity [1] - The company has expanded and built a high-quality, long-term stable customer base, which has also contributed significantly to its performance growth [1] Business Segments Consumer Electronics - The company's consumer electronics business has entered a harvest period after years of strategic layout, with revenue from this segment reaching 744 million yuan in the first half of 2024 (YoY 38.45%) [2] - The company has established a strong relationship with major clients, including Apple and Google, and has been a core supplier for Apple since 2018 [2] - The release of Apple Intelligence in June 2024 is expected to drive a new wave of device upgrades, benefiting the company's consumer electronics business [2] Huayangtong (Server and Infrastructure) - Huayangtong, a subsidiary, is a qualified supplier for Huawei and is benefiting from the AI-driven demand for server and infrastructure hardware [2] - The company provides solutions for servers, storage, switches, and routers, and has expanded into charging stations and energy storage, positioning itself as a platform supplier [2] - The company's expertise in metal components and integrated assembly capabilities further strengthen its position in the market [2] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1,818 million yuan in 2023 to 7,452 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 61.2% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 281 million yuan in 2023 to 1,031 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 60.1% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow from 1.10 yuan in 2023 to 4.03 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price is set at 62.4 yuan, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential compared to peers [2] - The current price is 35.63 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [3] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance over the past 12 months, with a 33% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [4]