HONGLU(002541) EBSCN·2024-10-14 23:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in new orders and production due to seasonal disruptions and ongoing smart transformation initiatives. However, the order intake is expected to show significant growth in the upcoming quarter [2]. - The average price of large orders has decreased, reflecting the overall decline in steel prices, but the company is positioned for long-term competitiveness through its technological advancements [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Orders and Production - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. In Q3 2024, new orders amounted to 7.6 billion yuan, also down 4% year-on-year [1]. - The steel structure product output for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. In Q3 2024, production was about 1.14 million tons, up 1% year-on-year but down 4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Price and Order Volume Analysis - Excluding the impact of steel price fluctuations, the order intake in Q3 2024 is expected to show a double-digit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The average price of hot-rolled steel decreased by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2]. - The proportion of large orders slightly decreased to about 20% in Q3 2024, with an average price of approximately 5,045 yuan per ton, down 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.24 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan, respectively. The current price corresponds to a dynamic P/E ratio of 8x for 2024 [2][11]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 24.5 billion yuan, 26.2 billion yuan, and 29.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.08%, 6.91%, and 12.00% respectively [11].