LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Changjiang Securities·2024-10-15 01:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.239 to 1.405 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.128 to 1.294 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 81% to 107% [4][5]. - The domestic excavator and loader industry continues to show strong growth, with the company's domestic business expected to improve significantly. The international business is also anticipated to see revenue growth due to improved exports [4][5]. - The company's electric products are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth, alongside ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives [5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 319 to 361 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70%. The median estimate is 340 million yuan, corresponding to a 60% growth rate. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 288 to 331 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 182% to 224%, and a median of 309 million yuan, indicating a 203% growth [4][5]. Domestic Market - The domestic earth-moving machinery industry is recovering, with significant growth in domestic sales. From July to September, domestic sales of excavators increased by 21.9%, 18.1%, and 21.5% year-on-year, driven by factors such as low base effects and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][5]. - The loader market also showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in Q3. The company's core business, which includes excavators and loaders, is expected to benefit from this recovery [4][5]. International Market - The export of excavators has shown signs of recovery after 14 months of decline, with year-on-year increases of 7.0% and 2.5% in August and September, respectively. The company is expected to outperform the industry in overseas sales, particularly in emerging markets [4][5]. Electric Products - The company has a competitive advantage in electric products, with a significant increase in electric loader sales. In September 2024, electric loader sales reached 937 units, a year-on-year increase of 115%, with a penetration rate of 11.6% [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.607 billion yuan and 2.001 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15 times and 12 times [5].