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银轮股份:系列点评三:2024Q3业绩符合预期,海外业务贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.0-6.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.1% to 37.5% [1]. - The expected net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to be between 1.9 and 2.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 32.8% [1]. - The company has made significant progress in its overseas operations, particularly in North America, where its Mexican factory has reached breakeven and is expected to contribute positively to profits starting in 2024 [1]. - The growth in the new energy thermal management business is notable, with the company expanding its customer base to include major players like BYD, Li Auto, and others [1]. - The company is also seeing a breakthrough in its third growth curve, focusing on data center liquid cooling and energy storage systems, which is expected to significantly boost performance starting in 2024 [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 136.1 billion, 163.1 billion, and 193.0 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 8.52 billion, 10.45 billion, and 12.61 billion yuan [1][2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.02, 1.26, and 1.52 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 19, 15, and 13 for the same years [2][4].