HPEC(600312) Haitong Securities·2024-10-15 09:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][8]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year to between 540 million and 560 million yuan in the third quarter of 2024. For the first three quarters of 2024, the estimated net profit is projected to be between 850 million and 870 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.87% to 57.49% [5][6]. - The rapid growth in performance is attributed to several factors, including steady increases in grid investment, ongoing construction of the grid, and the delivery of key projects, which have led to revenue growth. Additionally, continuous improvement in management and a shift in revenue structure towards higher value-added products have contributed to this growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 11,077 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 19.4%. By 2024, the revenue is projected to reach 12,462 million yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years [7][10]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 816 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 284.5%. The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 1,250 million yuan, continuing to grow in the following years [7][10]. Market Opportunities - The ongoing construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects is expected to benefit the company significantly. The acceleration of these projects is driven by national energy policies aimed at enhancing the capacity for renewable energy consumption [6][8]. - The company possesses world-leading ultra-high voltage technology and a complete industrial chain for switchgear, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [6][8]. Future Projections - The forecasted net profit for the company is expected to reach 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, 1.59 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.92 billion yuan in 2026. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.92 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.42 yuan respectively [8][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25-30 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable price range of 23 to 27.6 yuan per share [8][10].