STO(SZ:002468) Changjiang Securities·2024-10-15 09:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.79-2.27 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a significant year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The company has shown strong growth momentum, leading the express delivery industry with a volume growth rate of 31.3% year-on-year, despite intensified price competition during the off-peak season [3][4]. - The company is entering a period of management reform benefits, enhancing the positive cycle of "scale - cost - profitability," with profitability elasticity accelerating [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 6.16-6.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.7%-200.4% [3]. - The estimated net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to be 1.79-2.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6429.63%-8180.59% [3][4]. - The estimated single-ticket profit for Q3 is between 0.03 and 0.04 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The overall industry volume increased by 20.8% year-on-year in July and August, while the company's volume growth outpaced this at 31.3% [3][4]. - The average industry price decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with the company's average price down by 5.8% [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented significant management reforms since 2021, focusing on core express delivery operations and enhancing operational efficiency [4]. - The company aims to build a delivery network capable of handling 100 million packages daily over the next three years, emphasizing service quality and operational efficiency [4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 10.0 billion, 14.3 billion, and 16.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.6, 12.4, and 10.8 [4].