Soochow Securities·2024-10-15 16:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [1] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, projecting a range of approximately 37 billion to 39.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% to 70% [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the recovery of the equity market, which has led to substantial growth in investment income and net profit [2] - The company continues to focus on a dividend value strategy in its equity investments, which has resulted in investment returns significantly exceeding market benchmarks [2] - The report highlights the company's robust balance sheet and its characteristics as a stable high-dividend shadow stock, indicating a solid foundation for investment performance [2] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 42.8 billion, 38 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates [2] - The expected growth rates for net profit are 57% for 2024, -11% for 2025, and 14% for 2026 [2] - The new business value is projected to grow at rates of 24%, 11%, and 6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 37.45 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 360.28 billion yuan [4] - The price-to-book ratio is 1.35, indicating the valuation relative to the company's net assets [4] Financial Data - The company has a total share capital of approximately 9.62 billion shares, with a net asset value per share of 27.79 yuan [5] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 88.50%, reflecting the company's financial leverage [5] Related Research - Previous reports indicate a continuous improvement in new business value (NBV) over six consecutive quarters, suggesting a positive trend in the company's performance [6]