证券研究报告 如何理解保险行业新会计准则的变化？ ——保险行业研究"红宝书"系列之一 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 2026.3.9 核心观点：新会计准则引导公允价值计量，重塑财务报表逻辑 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 资料来源：财政部会计司，申万宏源研究 ◼ 保险行业落地新会计准则影响深远。为提升业绩可比性及盈利透明度，2023年上市险企同步落地新金融工具准则（IFRS 9）及新 保险合同准则（IFRS 17），非上市保险公司原则上于2026年1月1日落地。新准则颠覆了原准则的确认和计量规则，对保险公司的 会计实务、经营管理、估值逻辑产生深远影响。 ◼ IFRS9：资产分类"四变三"，公允价值计量资产占比提升。1）金融资产分类改为依据企业管理金融资产的业务模式和金融资产 的合同现金流量特征的客观三分类法——AC/FVOCI/FVTPL。细分资产来看，i)股票：可选择计入FVTPL或者FVOCI；计入FVOCI有 持有期限限制，股息计入利润表，公允价值变动计入其他综合收益，卖出时公允价值变动直接进入资产负债表，不影响利润。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the goal of enhancing the quality and expanding the coverage of the insurance industry, further promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - The report highlights multiple areas where insurance plays a crucial role, including livelihood security, rural revitalization, and risk prevention [4]. - Key tasks for 2026 include improving the multi-tiered medical security system, increasing the minimum monthly basic pension for urban and rural residents by 20 yuan, and enhancing agricultural insurance measures [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livelihood Security Insurance - The report outlines the establishment of a long-term mechanism for basic medical insurance participation and the introduction of an innovative drug directory for commercial health insurance, with long-term care insurance covering 300 million people [5][6]. - It also mentions the need to combat fraud in medical insurance and to accelerate the development of commercial health insurance [6]. Pension Insurance - The minimum standard for basic pensions will be increased by 20 yuan, and a personal pension system will be implemented nationwide [5][6]. Agricultural Insurance - Measures to promote agricultural insurance development will be formulated to enhance comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction capabilities [6]. Catastrophe Insurance - The report calls for the establishment of a catastrophe insurance guarantee system to maintain national security and social stability [6]. Export Credit Insurance - There will be increased support for credit and insurance to stabilize foreign trade and expand the use of the Renminbi in cross-border transactions [6]. Capital Market and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need for orderly risk resolution and capital replenishment in the financial sector, with a focus on enhancing the stability of insurance companies [5][6]. - It highlights the importance of insurance funds as a significant source of long-term capital, with a recommendation for a more stable allocation of equity assets [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Property & Casualty Insurance (H), China Life, and China Re (H) for investment [5].

财险标的 PB 估值：财险 1.15x、人保 A1.21x、人保 H0.82x、众安 1.01x、中 国再保险 0.60x。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）财新网；行业交流数据显示，2026 年 2 月，银保全市场新单实现 690 亿 元，同比增长 6.9%，在 1 月强劲增长的高基数下，环比下滑 67.6%；1-2 月累 计新单 2814 亿元，同比增长 21.7%。其中，2 月单月期缴新单同比下滑 9.7% 至 300 亿元，1-2 月累计期缴新单同比增长 21%至 1331 亿元。 （2）中国网财经：今年政府工作报告提及保险 12 次，涵盖农业保险、巨灾保 险、职工保险、商业健康保险、长期护理保险等多个领域，展现了保险业在服 务国家大局、促进经济发展、增进民生福祉中的重要作用与责任担当。 证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20260302-20260306） 推荐（维持） 保险板块持续调整，配置性价比或显现 人身险标的 PEV 估值： A 股：国寿 0.82x、新华 0.82x、平安 0.76x、太保 0.64x。 H 股：平安 0.73x、新华 0.55x、太保 0.52x、国寿 0.51x、太平 0.4 ...

非银金融 2026 年 03 月 08 日 相关研究 《关注券商板块低点配置机会——非银金 融行业周报（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）》 2026/03/01 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 重申重视券商板块配置窗口期 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2026/3/2-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行业点评 图表目录 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 | 非银金融行业:AI 助力金融公 | 2026-03-01 | | --- | --- | | 司降本增效，板块波动后迎 | | | 配置机遇 | | | 非银金融行业:开年政策及资 | 2026-02-23 | | 金延续向好，看好板块补涨 | | | 机遇 | | | 非银金融行业:增量资金持续 | 2026-02-08 | | 入市，关注非银板块配置机 | | | 会 | | 972918116公共联系人2026-03-08 13:36:52 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_Author] 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-82544248 yanyilan@gf.com.cn 分析师： 唐关勇 SAC 执证号：S0260525070004 021-38003812 tang ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a favorable investment environment despite some challenges ahead [7]. Core Insights - The solvency of life insurance companies is expected to weaken in 2025, leading to an accelerated need for capital replenishment, while property insurance companies will see a slight increase in solvency [7]. - The total investment balance in the insurance industry is projected to grow steadily, with life insurance contributing significantly to this increase [16]. - The asset allocation structure of life insurance companies shows a high bond allocation, with a continuous increase in stock positions [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with stable channels and teams, as well as those with better asset flexibility and duration matching [31]. Summary by Sections 1. Solvency of Life and Property Insurance Companies - The solvency ratio for life insurance companies decreased from 196.6% in Q1 2025 to 169.3% in Q4 2025, while property insurance companies saw a slight increase from 239.3% to 243.5% during the same period [10][12]. 2. Investment Balance in the Insurance Industry - The total investment balance in the insurance sector rose from 32.2 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2024 to 37.1 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, with life insurance companies holding over 90% of this total [16][19]. 3. Asset Allocation Structure of Life Insurance Companies - As of Q4 2025, the allocation of bonds, stocks, and funds for life insurance companies was 51.1%, 10.1%, and 5.1% respectively, with significant year-on-year increases in stock investments [25][27]. 4. Asset Allocation Structure of Property Insurance Companies - By Q4 2025, property insurance companies had a bond allocation of 40.6% and a stock allocation of 9.4%, reflecting a strategic shift towards standardized assets [28][30]. 5. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong product structures and stable channels, as well as those with higher equity flexibility and better duration matching [31]. Potential targets include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and China People’s Insurance [31].

Group 1 - The insurance stocks that had been declining have rebounded, with AIA Group rising over 5% [1] - China Reinsurance and Yunfeng Financial both increased by over 4% [1] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 3.7%, while China Life, New China Life, and ZhongAn Online gained over 2% [1] - China People's Insurance, China Property & Casualty Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance all saw increases of over 1% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese insurance industry has shown rapid growth, with total investment assets reaching 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [20][21]. - The allocation of investment assets has shifted significantly towards bonds, which increased from 33.3% in Q1 2019 to 50.4% in Q4 2025, while the share of stocks and funds rose from 12.4% to 15.4% during the same period [26][20]. - The performance of insurance companies is highly sensitive to fluctuations in equity markets and interest rates, with both static and dynamic impacts on their financial performance [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Insurance Industry Investment Status - The insurance industry has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% in investment assets from 2004 to 2025, with a notable recovery in growth rates following a low point in 2021 [20]. - The proportion of investment assets allocated to life insurance companies has remained around 90% since 2022, indicating their dominance in the market [21]. 2. Sensitivity Analysis of Equity Market Upturn - A 10% increase in equity investment prices could lead to an average pre-tax profit increase of 38.7%, with China Pacific Insurance showing the highest sensitivity at 83.4% [2]. - If equity investment prices rise by 10% alongside a 10% increase in equity allocation, the average pre-tax profit could increase by 81.2%, with China Pacific Insurance again leading at 175.2% [2]. 3. Sensitivity Analysis of Interest Rate Increases - A 50 basis point increase in market interest rates could result in an average pre-tax profit increase of 0.7%, with China Life and China Pacific showing significant positive elasticity [2][3]. 4. Economic Assumption Sensitivity Analysis - An increase in investment return rates and risk discount rates by 50 basis points could enhance new business value by an average of 35%, with China Life and New China Life showing the highest sensitivity [12]. 5. Liability Cost Analysis - The average new policy liability cost is estimated at 2.76%, with Ping An and China Life having the lowest costs [12]. - The report suggests that effective management of liability costs will enhance the long-term profitability of insurance companies [12]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the insurance sector is currently undervalued and suggests a systematic allocation of investments in this sector due to its high beta elasticity and resilience [12].

Core Views - The report highlights the dual drivers of liabilities and assets in the insurance sector, with significant elasticity in equity performance [2][3] - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain its favorable conditions, with low valuations presenting strategic allocation opportunities [4][10] Insurance: Dual Drivers of Liabilities and Assets - The insurance sector is benefiting from the migration of household deposits, with a notable increase in new individual insurance policies at the beginning of 2026, supported by low baselines and the appeal of dividend insurance in a bullish market [6][20] - The insurance sector's total premium income is projected to grow by 9.1% year-on-year in 2025, with significant contributions from both individual and bank insurance channels [21][25] - The average price-to-earnings value (PEV) for listed insurance companies has dropped to 0.78 times, indicating a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors [6][69] Brokerage: Sustained Prosperity and Low Valuations - The brokerage sector is expected to see a 52.3% and 29.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected weighted return on equity (ROE) of 10% in 2026 [6][10] - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms with low valuations and high contributions from wealth management, such as Huatai Securities and GF Securities, as well as leading firms like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities [6][10] - The market's active trading environment is anticipated to continue benefiting brokerage firms, with significant growth in retail brokerage and wealth management services [75][82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, while giving a "Strong Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transformation of dividend insurance in the context of deposit migration, highlighting its competitive advantages and the expected increase in premium contributions from dividend insurance [7][8]. - It notes that the insurance industry is expected to see a premium scale of 5.6 trillion yuan in 2026, with dividend insurance contributing approximately 2.1 trillion yuan [8]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Dividend Insurance? - Dividend insurance is categorized as a "fixed income +" product, providing a smoothing mechanism for income and reducing yield volatility [6][11]. - The report discusses the historical dominance of dividend insurance prior to 2013, its decline due to market reforms, and its resurgence in the current low-interest-rate environment [21][22]. 2. Competitive Analysis of Dividend Insurance - The report compares dividend insurance with traditional insurance and highlights its advantages in terms of guaranteed returns and stability in volatile markets [33][34]. - It notes that the asymmetric adjustment of preset interest rates has significantly enhanced the attractiveness of dividend insurance, especially in the context of a recovering equity market [34][40]. 3. Leveraging Channels - The report identifies the migration of deposits as a key driver for the growth of dividend insurance, with bank insurance becoming a primary channel for low-risk preference customers [8][33]. - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality agents in the individual insurance channel as a competitive barrier in the low-interest-rate era [8][33]. 4. Transformation and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that dividend insurance will continue to dominate the low-risk segment, with potential shifts towards "low guarantee + high floating" models in the future [8][30]. - It suggests that dividend-type critical illness insurance may become a new growth point in the health insurance sector in 2026 [8][30].