安踏体育：双十一预售开啓，Q4电商大促有望带来改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 118, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with e-commerce continuing to show over 25% growth. The inventory remains healthy with a sell-through ratio below 5 [1]. - FILA experienced a low single-digit decline in Q3 2024, impacted by market saturation and weak demand, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 due to the e-commerce peak season [1]. - Other brands, particularly in outdoor sports, showed strong performance with growth rates of 45-50%, including significant increases for specific brands like Disante and Kolon [1]. - The overall performance in Q4 is anticipated to improve due to favorable consumption policies and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 86,578 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 15,349 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 5.53 in 2026 [2][6]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese sportswear industry, expected to benefit from industry growth and consumer trends [1][3]. - The company has a diversified brand portfolio, with strategies tailored to different consumer segments, enhancing its market reach [1]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholder is Anta International Group Holdings Limited, holding 42.45% of the shares, followed by The DSZ Family Trust and others [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.54 for 2023, decreasing to 15.04 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][9]. - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.20% in 2023 to 2.61% in 2026 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin is expected to improve from 62.6% in 2023 to 63.3% in 2026, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2][9]. - Inventory turnover days are projected to stabilize around 123 days, reflecting efficient inventory management practices [9]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop anticipated in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years [8]. - The cash balance is projected to increase from RMB 15,228 million in 2023 to RMB 24,833 million by 2026, indicating a strengthening liquidity position [8].