Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.04 CNY per share, representing a potential upside of 40.91% from the current price of 9.96 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the "coal-electricity integration" sector in Shaanxi Province, showcasing stable cash flow characteristics and continuous performance improvement [1][20]. - The company's operational model effectively mitigates the cyclical volatility of coal and electricity prices, with a significant portion of its power plants being pithead plants [2][34]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing electricity market reforms, with expected increases in revenue stability and levels [3][41]. - The DCF valuation model indicates a target market value of 526.31 billion CNY, with projected revenues and net profits showing consistent growth over the next three years [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, has expanded from coal development into the electricity sector, achieving rapid growth in installed capacity and business diversification [13][17]. 2. Coal-Electricity Integration Model - The integration model ensures stable profitability, with a high asset matching degree between coal and electricity operations, accounting for 69.64% of the installed capacity [2][34]. - The company has a long-term coal supply strategy, achieving a self-use coal ratio of 74.74% in 2023, which enhances cost efficiency [34][37]. 3. Revenue and Stability - The company is expected to benefit from the new capacity pricing policy, which will enhance revenue stability and profitability [3][41]. - The average monthly capacity electricity price in Shaanxi Province for the first half of 2024 is projected to be 0.023 CNY/KWh, indicating a favorable pricing environment [3][41]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 221.31 billion CNY, 238.71 billion CNY, and 261.58 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 48.58 billion CNY, 52.64 billion CNY, and 58.02 billion CNY [4][5]. - The DCF model suggests a target price of 14.04 CNY per share, with a PE ratio of 17.50 for 2024, indicating strong growth potential [4][5].
陕西能源：“煤电一体化”典型标的，稳定现金流特质凸显