2026 年 2 月 1 日 ——公用事业行业周报（20260201） 要点 本周行情回顾：本周 SW 公用事业一级板块下跌 1.66%，在 31 个 SW 一级板 块中排名第 16；沪深 300 上涨 0.08%，上证综指下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指下跌 0.09%。细分子板块中，火电下跌 2.78%，水电上涨 0.3%，光伏发电下跌 4.53%，风力发电下跌 2.49%，电能综合服务上涨 0.41%， 燃气下跌 3.2%。 本周数据更新：本周国产、进口动力煤价格有所反弹。其中，国产秦皇岛港 5500 大卡动力煤（中国北方，平仓价）周环比上涨 4 元/吨，仍处于 700 元/ 吨以下。进口动力煤中，防城港 5500 大卡动力煤（印度尼西亚，场地价）本 周周环比上涨 5 元/吨。受寒潮影响，本周山西（出清算数均值，实时市场）、 广东（加权平均电价）现货周平均出清价格较上周大幅上涨。月度代理购电 中运行费用呈现上行趋势，主要原因系容量电价提升及新能源机制电量进入结 算周期；代理购电电量电费全国大范围下行，主要原因系火电年度长协电价大 幅下行叠加新能源全面入市，降低代理购电成本。2 月 5 ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2026 年 01 月 31 日 库存季节性偏低，煤价震荡上行 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 1 月 30 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 692 元/吨，周环比 +7 元/吨，内蒙古产地价微涨、山西产地价小涨、陕西产地价持平。 截至 1 月 30 日，动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量 532.9 万吨，环比- 8.1 万吨，年同比+17.7%。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存微跌，动力 煤库存指数小跌，秦港库存小跌，截至 1 月 26 日，动力煤库存指数 为 180.4 （ -5 ）。 非 电 方 面 ， 甲 醇 、 尿 素 开 工 率 分 别 为 91.2% （+1.3pct）和 88.3%（+1.88pct），仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 1 月 30 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1800 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西产地价小跌，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 1 月 30 日，523 家 样本矿山精煤日均产量 77.1 万吨（+0.1 万吨），年同比+64.2%，523 家样本矿山精煤库存 267.2 万吨（-7.2 万吨），年同比-30%；截至 1 月 3 ...

证券代码：001286 证券简称：陕西能源 公告编号：2026-002 2026年1月31日 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2025年9月5日，陕西能源投资股份有限公司（以下简称公司）召开2025年第 二次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于向中国证监会及银行间交易商协会申请注 册发行公司债券及非金融企业债务融资工具的议案》。 近日，公司收到中国证券监督管理委员会出具的有关批复，同意公司向专业 投资者公开发行面值总额不超过20亿元的可续期公司债券，同意公司向专业投资 者公开发行面值总额不超过60亿元公司债券。批复有效期为自同意注册之日起24 个月，公司在注册有效期内可以分期发行。 公司收到中国银行间市场交易商协会接受注册通知书，其中超短期融资券注 册金额为10亿元、短期融资券注册金额为20亿元、中期票据注册金额为70亿元、 永续中期票据注册金额为20亿元，前述注册额度自注册通知书落款之日起2年内 有效。 公司将按照有关法律法规和上述批复的要求及公司相关授权，办理本次债券 发行相关事宜，并及时履行信息披露义务。 特此公告。 董事会 陕西能源投资股份有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The power industry is entering a new phase characterized by rational investment, market-oriented power generation, and spot pricing for electricity [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant cooling in new energy investments, while thermal power is expected to reach its investment peak by 2026 [5][17]. - The introduction of the "1502" document is expected to shift the electricity pricing model towards a more flexible, market-driven approach, enhancing the role of spot trading [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Industry Investment and Capacity Situation - Investment in new energy has notably decreased, while thermal power investment continues to grow. The peak for thermal power investment is anticipated in 2026 [5][17]. - Monthly capacity additions show a stark contrast before and after the "531" policy, with thermal power gradually approaching its production peak [5][10]. 2. New Trends in Electricity Reform for 2026 - Market-oriented power generation is gaining traction, with competitive bidding results for new energy projects being favorable. Nuclear power is also increasing its market entry ratio [3][29]. - The "1502" document has loosened the previous pricing model, significantly increasing the weight of spot trading in electricity transactions [3][29]. 3. Analysis of the Second Half of Electricity Reform - New energy capacity additions are expected to slow significantly, while thermal power generation is projected to see substantial growth. The report estimates an increase in thermal power generation from a decline of 37.8 billion kWh in 2025 to an increase of 135.6 billion kWh in 2026, representing a growth rate of 2.20% [3][10]. - The annual long-term contract price decline is more significant than expected, creating potential profit opportunities for thermal power in the spot market [3][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the challenges faced by thermal power may reverse, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and integrated coal-power operators. The expected stabilization of coal prices and significant growth in thermal power generation are key factors for this turnaround [3][10][29]. - Recommended companies include major state-owned enterprises in the power sector and integrated coal-power operators, which are expected to show resilience and high dividend attributes [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the power generation sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the core logic determining the valuation of power stocks has changed in the new energy era, with expectations of a rebound in electricity prices and stock valuations as coal prices stabilize [4][6]. - It highlights that the most challenging phase for electricity supply and demand in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in demand starting in 2026 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation gap between U.S. and Chinese power stocks has widened significantly, with U.S. power stocks trading at 2-4 times the price-to-book (PB) ratio of their Chinese counterparts [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several undervalued power operators, including Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and China Power [3][8]. - It suggests that the capacity price increase in 2026 will benefit thermal power, while the stabilization of energy prices will favor nuclear, green, and hydropower [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that both China and the U.S. are experiencing similar electricity shortages due to a slowdown in the growth of base-load power sources, with structural demand exceeding expectations potentially leading to supply crises [5][26]. - It discusses the significant differences in electricity pricing structures between the two countries, with U.S. electricity prices being significantly higher due to various systemic costs [56][58]. Price Trends and Projections - The report predicts that by 2026, the industrial electricity prices in China will be significantly lower than those in the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [6][11]. - It highlights that the electricity price gap between the two countries is expected to continue to widen, benefiting China's manufacturing sector [6][8]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the most severe supply-demand imbalance in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in electricity demand driven by increased manufacturing investment [7][8]. - It also notes that the U.S. is facing a similar situation, with a projected decline in gas-fired electricity generation and a potential increase in coal-fired generation [5][30].

Group 1: Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases from January 12 to January 18 are Baili Tianheng, Hunan YN, and Huali Technology, with target price increases of 319.47%, 85.81%, and 58.27% respectively, belonging to the chemical pharmaceuticals, battery, and entertainment products industries [1][2]. Group 2: Broker Recommendations - A total of 191 listed companies received broker recommendations during the same period, with Dongpeng Beverage receiving 9 recommendations, and Pudong Development Bank receiving 8 recommendations [3][4]. - The top recommended companies include Dongpeng Beverage, Pudong Development Bank, and Guizhou Moutai, with respective recommendations from 9, 8, and 7 brokers [3][4]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Four companies had their ratings upgraded, including Jiayuan Technology from "Hold" to "Buy" by Tianfeng Securities, and Dike Co. from "Hold" to "Strong Buy" by CMB [5]. - One company, Shaanxi Energy, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Guotou Securities [6]. Group 4: First Coverage - During the same period, 60 instances of first coverage were reported, with companies like Chuanjin Nuo and Dongyangguang receiving "Hold" ratings from Guotai Junan Securities [7]. - Other companies receiving first coverage include Qiaoyin Co. with a "Buy" rating from Guosheng Securities, and Yubang Power with a "Buy" rating from Zheshang Securities [7].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 10.34 CNY for the next six months [4][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company leverages its coal-electricity integration to achieve upstream and downstream synergy, providing significant growth potential. As of Q3 2025, the company has an operational installed capacity of 11.23 million kW and is actively expanding its coal production capacity [1][9]. - The company is diversifying its energy business, focusing on renewable energy as a strategic transformation direction, which is expected to enhance its resilience against market fluctuations [2][9]. - The pricing mechanism in Shaanxi Province is designed to maintain a controlled decline in electricity prices, which is expected to stabilize the company's revenue [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company is a leading player in coal-electricity integration in Shaanxi Province, with a total coal production capacity of 24 million tons per year. New coal mines are being developed to further enhance production capabilities [1][9]. - The company is expanding its business model to include resource recycling and new energy services, which will help mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single market [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 22.56 billion CNY, 26.46 billion CNY, and 29.17 billion CNY, with growth rates of -2.6%, 17.3%, and 10.2% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 2.72 billion CNY, 3.23 billion CNY, and 3.47 billion CNY for the same period [7][13]. - The company expects to maintain a stable average selling price for coal and electricity, with projected prices of 516 CNY/ton and 0.353 CNY/kWh respectively for the upcoming years [9][10]. Market Position - The company has a significant market presence, with 42.43% of its coal-electricity units supporting the "West-East Power Transmission" project, which is crucial for its growth strategy [1][9]. - The company’s operational efficiency is enhanced by its advanced technology, with 89.04% of its approved installed capacity being supercritical units, which are expected to lower operational costs [1][9].

Group 1 - The company relies on a coal-electricity integrated layout to achieve upstream and downstream synergy, with significant growth potential in its business [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company's coal-electricity installed capacity is 11.23 million kilowatts, with 4.02 million kilowatts under construction and 2 million kilowatts approved for construction [1] - The company has a coal production capacity of 24 million tons per year, with the Zhao Shipan coal mine expected to officially start production in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi Province has effectively established a market price lower limit protection mechanism through institutional design, which includes monitoring market power and setting floating coefficients for benchmark electricity prices [2] - The retail side will see market prices determined by medium-to-long-term and spot market mechanisms starting in 2026, reducing disorderly price suppression [2] - The company’s power generation units are mostly advanced new units, with 89.04% of approved installations being supercritical units, which are expected to lower operational costs further [2] Group 3 - The company is actively promoting diversification in its energy business, with a strategic focus on renewable energy as a key direction for transformation [3] - The electricity pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects in Shaanxi Province is set to provide clear and favorable price expectations for new projects [3] - The company is expanding its business scope beyond combined heat and power, with resource recycling and new business models like charging and swapping stations being developed [3] Group 4 - The company is projected to have revenues of 22.56 billion, 26.46 billion, and 29.17 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of -2.6%, 17.3%, and 10.2% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.72 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.47 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -9.6%, 18.9%, and 7.4% respectively [4] - The company is given a target price of 10.34 yuan based on a 12x PE for 2026, with an "Accumulate-A" investment rating [4]

Group 1 - The winning bid for the infrastructure public REITs fund management and special plan management service selection project by Shaanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd. was awarded to Western Securities Co., Ltd. [1] - The bid price quoted by Western Securities Co., Ltd. is 0.20% per year, with a total bid amount of 0.00 yuan [1] - The project is supervised by the internal control audit department of Shaanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The contact information for the bidding party includes Shaanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd. located at No. 45 Tangyan Road, Xi'an, and the contact person is Mr. Yu from the management department [1] - The bidding agency is Shaanxi Investment Group Huashan Bidding Co., Ltd., located at No. 258 Dongxin Street, Xi'an, with Mr. Li Yang as the contact person [1]