Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price of HKD 13.60 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit growth of approximately 20-40% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by robust business growth and significant investment income due to stock market performance [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company's original insurance premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investment performance expected to improve significantly due to the stock market rally [3][5]. - The investment income accounted for a high proportion of the company's pre-tax profit, with 75% in 2023 and 65% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong reliance on investment performance for profitability [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB 483.95 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.85% [7]. - Total investment income is expected to rise to RMB 21.91 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 41.61% compared to the previous year [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is RMB 29.60 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.41% [7]. Investment Performance - The report notes that the stock market's performance in the third quarter of 2024 is anticipated to enhance the company's quarterly profits significantly, with an estimated profit increase of 30% attributed to the stock market rally [4][5]. - The company's equity asset allocation as of the first half of 2024 was 11.4%, with a focus on high-yield stocks and funds [5]. Underwriting Performance - The original insurance premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to grow by 4.6%, with motor insurance increasing by 3.2% and non-motor insurance by 5.9% [6]. - The combined ratio (COR) for motor insurance is expected to be around 96.8% for the full year, while the non-motor insurance COR is projected to be 99.5% [6].
中国财险：1-3Q24业绩预喜，同比增长20-40%