CPIC(SH:601601) GF SECURITIES·2024-10-16 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with a current price of CNY 37.45 and HKD 28.20, and a target value of CNY 40.05 and HKD 30.41 [4]. Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, projected between CNY 37 billion and CNY 39.4 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% to 70% [2]. - The investment performance has greatly benefited from the rise in capital markets, with a notable increase in the fair value of stocks and funds held by the company, which accounted for 11.7% of its assets as of the first half of 2024 [2]. - The net profit growth for the third quarter is anticipated to be as high as 146.4% to 196.2%, significantly outpacing the previous quarter's growth of 99.4% [2]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in new business value (NBV) due to favorable policies and a decrease in liability costs, which alleviates concerns over interest margin losses [2]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the insurance sector, driven by steady growth policies and capital market support, which are expected to sustain high profit growth throughout the year [2]. Financial Summary - The company's embedded value is projected to grow from CNY 519.6 billion in 2022 to CNY 669.3 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 24.6 billion in 2022 to CNY 62.3 billion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 16.7% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from CNY 2.56 in 2022 to CNY 6.48 by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3].