CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) EBSCN·2024-10-16 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.021 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.7% [2][4] - The performance of the airport duty-free segment is strong, benefiting from various visa-free policies and the recovery of international flights, with significant revenue growth at major airports [3] - The offshore duty-free business continues to face challenges, with sales in Hainan declining significantly [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, down 52.5% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.92 billion yuan, a decline of 24.7% compared to the previous year [2] Duty-Free Business Analysis - The airport duty-free segment saw revenue growth exceeding 140% at Beijing airports and nearly 60% at Shanghai airports [3] - The company introduced 165 new product brands in the first three quarters, with over 40% being domestic brands, indicating a rising consumer interest in local products [3] Outlook and Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised downwards by 6.1%, 6.8%, and 6.9% respectively, with expected net profits of 6.69 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.76 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer spending and the implementation of city store policies [4]