KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-16 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, estimated between 37 billion to 39.4 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 60% to 70% [6]. - The strong performance is attributed to the recovery in equity markets, leading to substantial growth in investment income, which is expected to drive net profit higher than previously anticipated [6]. - The report forecasts a robust growth trajectory for the company's new business value (NBV) and embedded value (EV) over the next three years, with projected increases of 35.2%, 16.9%, and 10.9% for NBV from 2024 to 2026 [6]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of China Pacific Insurance is approximately 360.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 256.35 billion yuan [2]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 19.0% in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 34% [6]. - The current dividend yield (TTM) stands at 2.72%, with the stock price corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 times for the years 2024 to 2026 [6][7]. Performance Metrics - The insurance service revenue is expected to grow from 249.75 billion yuan in 2024 to 339.60 billion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.0% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2026 [7]. - The embedded value is projected to increase from 519.62 billion yuan in 2024 to 774.98 billion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3% in 2025 and 11.7% in 2026 [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 47.78 billion yuan in 2024 to 71.38 billion yuan in 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 75.3% in 2024 and 30.2% in 2025 [7].