恒立液压：下游工程机械需求持续回暖，公司业绩有望继续回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected outperformance compared to the market benchmark over the next 6-12 months [6][28]. Core Views - The domestic excavator sales in China showed a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in September 2024, with domestic sales rising by 21.5% [3][4]. - The hydraulic cylinder remains the largest revenue source for the company, accounting for approximately 52.2% of total revenue in 2023, while the hydraulic pump and valve segment has been growing, reaching 36.4% of revenue [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with projected revenue growth of 11.7%, 18.3%, and 18.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][28]. Summary by Sections Sales and Market Performance - In September 2024, China sold a total of 15,831 excavators, with domestic sales of 7,610 units, reflecting a 21.5% increase year-on-year [3]. - The hydraulic industry sees engineering machinery as a significant downstream sector, accounting for nearly 44% of demand [4]. Revenue Structure - The company's revenue structure indicates that hydraulic cylinders are the primary source of income, while the hydraulic pump and valve segment is rapidly increasing its share [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 100.4 billion, 118.8 billion, and 141.0 billion yuan, respectively [6][28]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26.7 billion, 32.5 billion, and 40.1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, 21.7%, and 23.4% [6][28]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue and profit margins, indicating a stable growth trajectory [8][30].