RADICAL(300652) 华鑫证券·2024-10-16 08:00Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [1] Core Views - The company, a leading player in the automotive wheel hub bearing industry, has achieved steady growth in both revenue and profit through its dual focus on front-end (OEM) and aftermarket (AM) segments [1] - The company's revenue increased from 591 million yuan in 2021 to 652 million yuan in 2023, with a YoY growth of 35.16%, 9.60%, and 0.62% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew from 96 million yuan in 2021 to 120 million yuan in 2023, with YoY growth rates of 61.66%, 8.16%, and 16.03% respectively [1] - The company's gross profit margins for its main products, such as wheel hub bearing units and clutch release bearings, are 30.21% and 38.87% respectively [1] Market Analysis - The domestic wheel hub bearing market is projected to reach 48.84 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 9.3% [1] - The front-end market is expected to grow to 14.3 billion yuan by 2025, while the aftermarket is projected to reach 34.54 billion yuan [1] - The AM market is characterized by diverse customer needs, requiring small-batch, multi-variety, and fast-response customized products, while the OEM market demands large-scale, fast-turnover products [2] - The global bearing market is dominated by eight multinational corporations, while the domestic market is fragmented with many small-scale enterprises focusing on low-end products [2] Business Strategy - The company is expanding its presence in both the aftermarket and front-end markets, with a strong focus on the growing demand from new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers [2] - It has secured multiple projects with mainstream NEV brands such as Changan, Great Wall, Dongfeng, Geely, GAC, Leapmotor, and XPeng [2] - The company is optimizing resource allocation through flexible production and rapid capacity expansion, with its second and third factories expected to significantly boost production capabilities [2] - The third factory, with an investment of 250 million yuan, is set to produce 900,000 sets of tapered roller bearings annually for heavy and medium-duty trucks, with a projected gross margin of 35.85% [3][5] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 778 million yuan in 2024 to 1.495 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.5% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 125 million yuan in 2024 to 194 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.7% [6] - EPS is projected to rise from 1.22 yuan in 2024 to 1.89 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 19.73x to 12.7x [6] Industry Trends - The domestic bearing industry is witnessing a significant trend of localization in the front-end market, driven by improving R&D capabilities [2] - The rapid development of the electric vehicle sector is driving demand for wheel hub bearings, with the market expected to grow steadily over the next few years [1] - The company is leveraging its technological expertise to expand into high-growth segments such as commercial vehicles and NEVs, with new products like bearings for NEV gearboxes and robotic arm joints [3]