Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328 HK) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance's 9M24 performance is expected to show significant improvement with cumulative net profit increasing by 20-40% YoY, driven by capital market recovery and improved investment returns [2] - The company's 9M24 ROE is expected to reach 10 4%, up 1 6 pct YoY, primarily due to improved investment yield and stable underwriting performance [2] - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality development and its new business model of "insurance + risk reduction services + technology" [2] Financial Performance - 9M24 cumulative net profit is expected to grow by 30% YoY, with 3Q24 net profit reaching 7 745 billion yuan (3Q23: 153 million yuan) [2] - 9M24 cumulative investment yield is expected to improve to 3 4% from 2 7% in 9M23, driving a 32% YoY increase in cumulative investment income [2] - The company's 9M24 COR is expected to be 97 7%, slightly improved from 97 9% in 9M23 [2] Business Segment Analysis Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative auto insurance COR is expected to be 96 6%, with premium growth of 3 2% YoY [2] - The improvement in auto insurance profitability is attributed to the expansion of commercial auto insurance pricing coefficients and the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [2] Non-Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative non-auto insurance COR is expected to be 99 4%, impacted by natural disasters and macroeconomic fluctuations [2] - Non-auto insurance premium growth is led by property insurance (3 3% YoY) and agricultural insurance (1 0% YoY), while credit insurance premiums declined by 5 9% YoY [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company shareholders to be 29 6 billion yuan, 32 3 billion yuan, and 34 5 billion yuan respectively [2] - Insurance service revenue is expected to grow from 494 billion yuan in 2024E to 569 8 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [2] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 12% from 2024E to 2026E [2]
中国财险：2024年前三季度业绩预增点评：投资收益业绩逐季改善，承保利润缺口持续收窄