BOSIDENG(03998) 海通证券·2024-10-16 08:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sustained profitability improvement of Moncler and Canada Goose is driven by three key factors: precise targeting of high-end consumer groups, increased proportion of direct sales channels, and expansion of product categories [3] - The company's market performance over the past six years is attributed to its reforms and expansions in brand upgrading, direct sales channel proportion, and new product categories [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25, translating to a reasonable value range of 5.96-6.31 HKD per share [3] Historical Performance of Moncler and Canada Goose - Both Moncler and Canada Goose have achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue and net profit since their IPOs [4][5] - Moncler's revenue grew from 364 million euros in 2011 to 2.603 billion euros in 2022, with a CAGR of 20% [4] - Canada Goose's revenue grew from 218 million CAD in FY2015 to 1.217 billion CAD in FY2023, with a CAGR of 24% [5] - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest revenue contributor for both companies, accounting for 43% of Moncler's revenue and 29% of Canada Goose's revenue in 2022 [5] Profitability Trends - Moncler's gross margin increased from 67% in 2011 to 76.4% in 2022, while its net margin rose from 15.4% to 23.3% over the same period [8][9] - Canada Goose's gross margin increased from 40.6% in FY2014 to 67% in FY2023, with its net margin peaking at 17.3% in FY2018 before declining post-pandemic [8][9] - Moncler's recovery post-pandemic has been stronger compared to Canada Goose, which saw a significant decline in net margin due to increased e-commerce investments and rising labor costs [8] Leadership and Development Strategies - Moncler's CEO, Remo Ruffini, has a strong background in the fashion industry, which has helped the company transition into a luxury brand [12] - Canada Goose's CEO, Dani Reiss, has focused on maintaining the brand's "Made in Canada" identity and functional product positioning [12] - Moncler has diversified its product lines and expanded into non-outerwear categories, while Canada Goose has emphasized its core product functionality and brand heritage [12][27] Channel and Supply Chain Strategies - Moncler's direct sales channel accounts for 80% of its revenue, significantly higher than Canada Goose's 67% [34] - Moncler has a more balanced growth strategy between store expansion and store efficiency, while Canada Goose has relied more on store expansion for growth [31] - Canada Goose maintains a higher proportion of in-house production, with 8 owned factories, compared to Moncler's reliance on third-party suppliers [37] Product Diversification and Seasonal Risk Mitigation - Moncler has successfully diversified its product portfolio, with non-outerwear products accounting for 25% of its revenue in 2020, up from 12% in 2014 [38] - Canada Goose plans to increase its non-down product revenue to 25% by FY2028, aiming to reduce seasonal dependency [38] Market Performance and Valuation - The company's market performance over the past six years has been strong, with a cumulative increase of 571.7% in stock price, outperforming many peers [41][42] - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25 [3]