GENSCRIPT BIO(01548) 华泰证券·2024-10-16 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.95 [3][9] Core Views - CARVYKTI achieved Q3 2024 sales of USD 286 million, a 54% quarter-on-quarter increase, with cumulative sales for the first three quarters reaching USD 629 million [3] - The company is expected to achieve full-year sales of over USD 900 million for CARVYKTI, driven by new capacity ramp-up and rapid commercialization of 2-4L indications [3] - The SOTP valuation for the company is HKD 51 billion, with non-cell therapy business valued at HKD 26.45 billion and cell therapy business at HKD 24.54 billion [9] Cell Therapy Business - CARVYKTI sales in Q1/Q2/Q3 2024 were USD 157 million, USD 186 million, and USD 286 million, respectively, showing significant growth compared to TECVAYLI [4] - The company expects to support an annual capacity of 10,000 cases by the end of 2025, with new capacities from Belgium and collaborations with Novartis [4] - R&D expenses for the cell therapy division are expected to peak in 2024, with most costs for CARTITUDE-5 likely completed this year [4] Non-Cell Therapy Business - Life sciences revenue is expected to grow by 10-15% annually, with operating profit growing faster than revenue [5] - CDMO revenue is projected to decline by 10-15% due to investment pressures and market competition [5] - Synthetic biology revenue is forecasted to grow by 25-35%, with adjusted operating margins stable at 4-5% [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected at USD 1.166 billion, USD 1.82 billion, and USD 3.02 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be USD -118.4 million, USD 146.38 million, and USD 595.54 million for 2024E/2025E/2026E [6] - EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E is forecasted at USD -0.06, USD 0.07, and USD 0.28, respectively [6] Valuation Methodology - The non-cell therapy business is valued at HKD 26.45 billion based on a 2025E PS of 5.00x, a 20% discount to comparable companies [10] - The cell therapy business is valued at HKD 24.54 billion, based on a 20% discount to the Nasdaq-listed Legend Biotech's market capitalization [12]