石药集团：Lp（a）抑制剂达成对外授权，国际化加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.15 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4] Core Views - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with AstraZeneca for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of its Lp(a) inhibitor YS2302018 The deal includes a $100 million upfront payment, up to$370 million in potential development milestone payments, and up to $1.55 billion in potential sales milestone payments, along with tiered royalties [2] - YS2302018, a small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor developed using the company's AI-driven drug design platform, shows promising preclinical results with excellent pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety Lp(a) is a potential target for lipid management, and multiple therapies, including siRNA, ASO, and small molecule inhibitors, are under development globally [2] - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts, with over 2,000 R&D personnel and eight major technology innovation platforms, including nanomedicine, siRNA, and ADC In H1 2024, R&D expenses reached RMB 2.542 billion, accounting for 18.8% of pharmaceutical revenue The company has over 130 innovative drug projects in its pipeline, with nearly 50 new products/indications expected to be submitted for approval in the next five years [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 30.937 billion in 2022 to RMB 38.991 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.9% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 6.091 billion in 2022 to RMB 7.339 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.7% [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.51 in 2022 to RMB 0.62 in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to decline slightly from 19.7% in 2022 to 15.7% in 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in R&D and international expansion [3] Financial Ratios - The company maintains a strong balance sheet, with total assets projected to grow from RMB 41.770 billion in 2022 to RMB 60.355 billion in 2026 [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 24.2% in 2022 to 20.4% in 2026, indicating improving financial health [8] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to remain robust, increasing from RMB 7.627 billion in 2022 to RMB 7.951 billion in 2026 [7] - The company's valuation multiples are attractive, with a forward PE of 12.2x for 2024 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.0x, reflecting its growth potential and strong market position [3]