EASTONBIOPHARMACEUTICALS(688513) 首创证券·2024-10-17 00:30Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2] Core Viewpoints - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and new formulations are expected to continuously contribute to performance growth. The company's existing key products have been included in centralized procurement, and the negative impact of price reductions on performance has been fully digested. Revenue is expected to maintain steady growth based on stable prices and increased volume. Additionally, the number of approved formulations has significantly increased, with several products showing good potential for volume growth. The company is focusing on analgesic and anesthetic products, developing specialized drugs with technical barriers and policy thresholds, which will help form new performance growth drivers [6][12]. - The export product lineup is continuously enriching, and revenue is expected to enter a rapid growth phase. The company is focusing on opioid detoxification agents and emergency drug product lines, as well as complex formulations and specialty 505(b)(2) products. The approval of hydrochloride injection of nalmefene by the FDA in November 2023 marks the company's first product for international markets. The approval of hydrochloride injection of nicardipine in September 2024 is also expected to contribute to recent performance. With the expected volume growth of these products, the company's export business is anticipated to enter a rapid growth phase [12][13]. - Earnings forecasts indicate that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.365 billion yuan, 1.706 billion yuan, and 2.121 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.2%, 25.0%, and 24.3%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 276 million yuan, 337 million yuan, and 424 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 22.2%, and 25.9%. Based on the closing price on October 15, the corresponding PE ratios are 23.3, 19.0, and 15.1, leading to the initial coverage rating of "Accumulate" [13][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Centralized Procurement - The negative impact of price reductions on performance has been fully digested, and existing key products are expected to maintain steady revenue growth. New products are beginning to contribute to revenue growth, with several recent approvals showing strong potential [6][10]. Section 2: Export Product Lineup - The company is expanding its international presence with a focus on high-barrier products. The approval of key products by the FDA is expected to significantly enhance revenue from exports [12][13]. Section 3: Earnings Forecasts - Revenue and net profit projections for the next three years indicate robust growth, supported by new product launches and market expansion strategies [13][14].