YTCO(SH:600066) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-17 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in bus production and sales in September 2024, with production and sales reaching 3,878 and 3,788 units respectively, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.8% and 6.2% [1] - The demand for public buses is expected to rise due to new policies that provide substantial subsidies for the replacement of old buses, which will benefit Yutong as a leading player in the new energy bus sector [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the tourism sector and the expansion of overseas markets, with a strong order backlog anticipated to drive sales in Q4 [1][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, Yutong's bus sales showed a positive trend with a total of 3,788 units sold, marking a 6.2% increase year-on-year and a 3.8% increase month-on-month [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September 2024, the company sold 31,346 buses, reflecting a 19.3% year-on-year increase [1] Market Conditions - The new subsidy policies introduced by the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance are expected to stimulate demand for public buses, with an average subsidy of 60,000 yuan per vehicle and 80,000 yuan for new energy buses [4] - The company is projected to benefit significantly from these policies, especially as various provinces have already implemented their subsidy guidelines [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Yutong from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 344.24 billion yuan, 398.64 billion yuan, and 465.21 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45 yuan, 1.89 yuan, and 2.19 yuan [4] - The report indicates a favorable PE ratio trend, with projected values of 14.24, 10.88, and 9.42 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Export Performance - Yutong's export performance remains strong, with 9,090 buses exported from January to September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, capturing a market share of 21.5% [5] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, including partnerships in Saudi Arabia [5]