Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on GDS Holdings with a "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - GDS Holdings is a global leader in data center services, with a strong presence in China and expanding into Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia [2] - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with overseas business surging by 494% YoY in 2023 [2] - The domestic market for data centers in China is growing due to increasing demand for computing power and digital transformation [2] - Southeast Asia's data center market has significant growth potential, driven by rapid expansion in the digital economy and AI technology [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.2/135.8/160.1 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with EBITDA of 48.6/55.5/64.5 billion RMB [2] Company Overview - GDS Holdings has transitioned from a service-oriented model to a resource-driven model since 2009, expanding its data center coverage across key regions in China and internationally [2][6] - The company has a robust portfolio of self-developed and third-party data centers, with a total net floor area of 565,062 square meters as of December 31, 2023 [9] - GDS Holdings uses a VIE structure for its operations in mainland China and directly controls its subsidiaries in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia [10] Financial Performance - In 2023, GDS Holdings reported total revenue of 9,957 billion RMB, with a 6.8% YoY growth [2][15] - The company's overseas business revenue reached 223 billion RMB in 2023, with a 494% YoY increase [15] - EBITDA margin improved to 24.7% in the first half of 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [19] Market Trends - China's data center market is experiencing a clusterization trend, with deployments shifting from central to peripheral areas and from east to west [25][26] - The Southeast Asian digital economy is expanding rapidly, with a projected growth rate of 15.8% over the next five years, surpassing the US and EU [36] - AI technology is driving increased demand for data centers in Southeast Asia, with the AI market expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.53% from 2024 to 2030 [42] Strategic Initiatives - GDS Holdings is focusing on green data center solutions, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 [34] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new data center projects in Malaysia and Indonesia [48] - GDS Holdings has partnered with overseas power companies to ensure stable electricity supply and is exploring fuel cell power solutions [49] Valuation and Forecast - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to be 14/12/10x for 2024-2026, with a revenue CAGR of 14.7%/18.9%/17.9% [2][54] - GDS Holdings is expected to increase its operational area to 67/80/87 million square meters by 2026, with a corresponding rise in revenue [50]
万国数据-SW：首次覆盖报告：国内基本盘稳固，海外行业拐点已至