JCET(600584) 华创证券·2024-10-17 08:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.6 RMB [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in semiconductor packaging and testing, with a comprehensive layout in advanced packaging, which is expected to drive revenue growth [1] - The semiconductor industry is recovering, and the demand for advanced packaging is accelerating due to high bandwidth requirements driven by HPC and AI [1] - The company's technological platform and high-quality customer resources position it to benefit from the upcoming AI smartphone replacement cycle [1] - The acquisition of 80% equity in Shindeng Semiconductor strengthens the company's strategic ties with Western Digital and enhances its position in the storage sector [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are revised upward to 35.413 billion RMB, 43.874 billion RMB, and 48.253 billion RMB, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.053 billion RMB, 3.106 billion RMB, and 3.881 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with EPS of 1.15 RMB, 1.74 RMB, and 2.17 RMB, respectively [1] - The company is valued at 28x PE for 2025, leading to the target price of 48.6 RMB [1] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is capital and labor-intensive, with profitability highly dependent on capacity utilization [1] - The advanced packaging market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by high bandwidth demands from AI, HPC, and 5G applications [1] - The global advanced packaging market is highly concentrated, with OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) players like ASE, Amkor, and the company dominating the market [1] Company Strengths - The company has a comprehensive technological platform covering mainstream packaging technologies, including WLP, 2.5D/3D, SiP, and Flip Chip [1] - It has established strong relationships with global leading customers, including Western Digital, Qualcomm, SK Hynix, and TI [1] - The company is accelerating its strategic layout in high-value markets such as automotive electronics, 5G communications, and high-performance computing [1] Growth Drivers - The recovery of the semiconductor cycle and the increasing demand for advanced packaging are expected to drive the company's revenue and profit growth [1] - The company's focus on key application areas, such as AI, HPC, and automotive electronics, will further enhance its market position [1] - The acquisition of Shindeng Semiconductor is expected to strengthen the company's capabilities in the storage sector and contribute to future growth [1] Technological Advancements - The company is actively developing 2.5D/3D packaging technologies and Chiplet solutions, which are expected to become key growth areas in the future [1] - It has made significant progress in high-density heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging technologies, which are critical for next-generation semiconductor applications [1] Market Position - The company is the third-largest OSAT player globally and the largest in mainland China, with a strong competitive position in the advanced packaging market [1] - Its market share and technological leadership in advanced packaging are expected to strengthen further as the industry evolves [1]