JCET(600584) 华创证券·2024-10-17 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.6 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturer, focusing on advanced packaging to drive steady growth. It has established a comprehensive layout in advanced packaging and is expanding into high-value markets such as automotive electronics, 5G communication, and high-performance computing [1][6]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with demand for packaging services expected to rebound as the industry cycle improves. The advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow rapidly due to high bandwidth requirements driven by developments in HPC and AI [1][27]. - The company has a robust technology platform and quality customer resources, positioning it to benefit from the upcoming AI-driven smartphone replacement wave. The acquisition of 80% of Shengdi Semiconductor is expected to strengthen its strategic relationship with Western Digital [1][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on the semiconductor packaging and testing industry since its establishment in 1972 and is currently the largest packaging manufacturer in mainland China and the third largest globally. It has eight production bases worldwide and covers mainstream packaging technologies [1][12]. Industry Analysis - The semiconductor packaging and testing market is experiencing a recovery, with the global market expected to grow from 81.5 billion USD in 2022 to 96.1 billion USD by 2026. The demand for advanced packaging is driven by the rapid development of automotive electronics, AI, and data centers [30]. - The report highlights that the advanced packaging market is characterized by high barriers to entry and significant growth potential, particularly in high-performance computing and AI applications [1][27]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 354.13 billion yuan, 438.74 billion yuan, and 482.53 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 20.53 billion yuan, 31.06 billion yuan, and 38.81 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.15 yuan, 1.74 yuan, and 2.17 yuan [1][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved capacity utilization and the integration of Shengdi's business, leading to a stable growth trajectory in its financial performance [1][8]. Competitive Position - The company holds a significant competitive advantage as the third-largest OSAT manufacturer globally, benefiting from a strong brand, diverse team, and international operations. The report emphasizes that the top three OSAT manufacturers control over 50% of the market share [24][25]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming AI smartphone replacement cycle, which is expected to drive demand for its services [1][25].