城投控股：大举获取上海核心项目，彰显禀赋优势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ChengTou Holdings with a target price of RMB 6.43 [1][4][6] Core Views - ChengTou Holdings has significantly enhanced its land reserves in Shanghai's core areas by acquiring six plots in Huangpu District for a total of RMB 7.08 billion, demonstrating its competitive advantage in land acquisition and its commitment to maintaining sales scale [1] - The newly acquired projects, adjacent to the Luxiangyuan project, are expected to have a total value exceeding RMB 12 billion, further boosting the company's premium land reserves in Shanghai's most central locations [2] - The company's sales have grown rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 328% in sales revenue for the first nine months of 2024, driven by the successful launch of key projects such as Qingxi Yundi and Luxiangyuan Phase II [3] - The company's rental income in Q3 2024 reached RMB 88 million, a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by the operation of the ChengTou Kuanjiu Jiuxing community [3] - The company's equity investments, particularly in Western Securities and Haitong Securities, have shown significant appreciation, with Western Securities' equity value reaching RMB 3.98 billion by Q3 2024 [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0.22, RMB 0.49, and RMB 0.59, respectively, with BPS projected at RMB 8.38, RMB 8.81, and RMB 9.34 [4] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with 2024E revenue projected at RMB 7.783 billion, a 204.14% increase year-on-year, followed by further growth in 2025E and 2026E [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from RMB 555.90 million in 2024E to RMB 1.495 billion in 2026E, reflecting a strong recovery and growth trajectory [5] Valuation and Metrics - The company's 2025E PB ratio is estimated at 0.73x, with a target price of RMB 6.43 based on this valuation [4] - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 21.30x in 2024E to 7.92x in 2026E, indicating improving profitability and valuation attractiveness [5] - ROE is projected to increase from 2.66% in 2024E to 6.23% in 2026E, reflecting enhanced return on equity [5]