JD(HK:09618) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-17 13:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" with a target price expected to yield over 20% return within 6 months [1]. Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is showing steady recovery, and the "trade-in" subsidy policy is expected to drive a recovery in core categories for JD Group [1]. - For Q3 2024, JD Group's revenue is projected to increase by 4.7% year-on-year to 259.5 billion yuan, supported by policy-driven consumer sentiment and growth in key product categories [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of 8.17 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a slight decline in profit margin due to increased platform investments and subsidies [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Macroeconomic Environment - From January to August 2024, retail sales of consumer goods showed a steady recovery, reaching 312,452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]. - Online retail sales reached 96,352 billion yuan, growing by 8.9% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 8.1% [1]. Company Performance - JD Group's self-operated business has strong barriers, and the construction of the POP ecosystem is progressing steadily, enhancing user experience and stimulating consumer demand [1]. - The number of third-party merchants on JD's platform exceeded one million by Q1 2024, with a significant increase in new merchants in Q2 [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1,132.1 billion, 1,233.3 billion, and 1,318.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 8.9%, and 6.9% [1]. - Long-term prospects are positive due to the synergy between 1P and 3P strategies, supply chain capabilities, and the application of AI models to reduce costs and increase efficiency [1].