Investment Rating - The report assigns a favorable investment rating to the Chinese internet sector, highlighting its attractiveness compared to U.S. tech stocks due to lower valuations and promising earnings growth [1][2]. Core Insights - The Chinese internet stocks have risen due to improved sentiment, catch-up effects, and relatively low valuations, with a projected PE ratio of 17 times for 2025, significantly lower than the 31 times for U.S. tech stocks [1][2]. - The consumption market in China is experiencing significant emotional consumption growth, with online retail growth at 6.3%, surpassing offline growth of 3.7% [1][4]. - AI technology is being widely applied across various sectors, including e-commerce recommendations, game design, and education, with companies like Alibaba leveraging AI to enhance cloud services and user engagement [5][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Performance of the Internet Industry - The Chinese internet sector has seen a stock price increase of approximately 37% from the beginning of 2025, despite a 19% decline in profit expectations due to pressures from e-commerce and retail investments [2]. 2. Changes in the Consumption Market - Emotional consumption has become a highlight, particularly in gaming, music, and tourism, with a notable increase in online retail driven by algorithm optimization and a growing number of online shoppers [3][4]. 3. AI Development in China - China is advancing in AI through self-developed chips and local GPU efficiency, with Alibaba Cloud experiencing a growth increase from 18% to 26% in recent quarters [5]. 4. Development of Instant Retail - Instant retail has emerged as a significant trend, with companies like JD and Alibaba increasing their investments in food delivery, although growth rates have slowed due to seasonal factors and regulatory influences [6]. 5. Competition in the Food Delivery Sector - The food delivery market is highly competitive, with low-price strategies affecting user experience and merchant profits, while machine retail is accelerating the shift from offline to online [7]. 6. Regulatory Changes in Platform Economy - The government has implemented new policies to encourage healthy competition and protect small businesses, resulting in a more manageable regulatory environment for internet companies [8]. 7. Policy Environment for the Gaming Industry - The gaming industry has seen a positive shift in policy, with a significant increase in the issuance of new game licenses and recognition of efforts to protect minors [9]. 8. Future Focus of the Gaming Industry - The gaming sector should focus on evergreen games and the launch of new titles, with major companies expected to continue leveraging their IPs for sustained performance [10]. 9. Recent Changes in Long Video Industry Regulations - New measures from the broadcasting authority aim to enhance content supply in the long video sector, which could increase user subscriptions [11]. 10. Impact of New Advertising Regulations - The new advertising tax policy may increase marketing costs for certain industries, posing a potential downside risk for the advertising sector [12]. 11. Current Status and Future of the Education Sector - The education market remains robust despite economic challenges, with a significant demand-supply gap expected to drive long-term growth [13]. 12. Opportunities for Chinese Internet Companies Overseas - Chinese online games have a competitive edge due to lower development costs and a large talent pool, enabling them to expand internationally [14][15]. 13. Recent Developments in Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce GMV has stabilized and shows signs of recovery, driven by innovative business models and improved logistics efficiency [16]. 14. Impact of ChatGPT on E-commerce - The introduction of ChatGPT's e-commerce features may have limited impact on China's e-commerce landscape, as major platforms already dominate traffic [17]. 15. Growth Potential and Competition in the Domestic Gaming Industry - The domestic gaming industry is expected to grow at around 5% in the coming years, with AI playing a crucial role in game development and player interaction [18][19].

京东 20251114 摘要 京东第三季度收入稳健增长，核心零售业务收入同比增长 11%至 2,510 亿人民币，年度活跃客户突破 7 亿，用户购物频率同比增加 40%以上， 主要得益于零售业务和新业务的贡献。 综合商品类别增长加速，同比增长 19%，其中超市、时尚和健康品类均 保持两位数增长。广告收入增长超过 20%，显示出强劲的增长势头。 新业务方面，京东食品配送业务日活跃用户数实现双位数环比增长，亏 损有所收缩。京喜进一步渗透低线城市市场，国际零售业务在欧洲逐步 建立能力。 京东发布人工智能路线图，推出通用数字人助手 TA 和 AI 代理 Join Inside 等产品，并升级零售技术基础设施，已为超过 4 万个品牌提供服 务，降低成本并提升销售业绩。 京东物流收入同比增长 24%，但非 GAAP 经营收入同比下降 39%至 13 亿元，原因是公司继续投资于客户体验、服务能力和技术，以提高整个 物流过程的效率。 Q&A 京东在 2025 年第三季度的总体业绩表现如何？ 在 2025 年第三季度，京东取得了显著的业绩增长。总收入同比增长 15%，达 到 2,999 亿人民币，保持了两位数的增长势头。非公认 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan in the latest quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - JD Retail revenue reached 250.6 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in daily necessities and marketing revenue [1] - The number of active users on the platform exceeded 700 million in October, with over 40% growth in both active user count and shopping frequency [1] Group 2 - Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Retail operating profit margin improved from 5.2% to 5.9% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in gross margin and a slight decrease in marketing expenses [2] - The company repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 2.8% of the total outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1,334.9 billion, 1,433.4 billion, and 1,558.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 30 billion, 41.5 billion, and 57.4 billion yuan respectively, with slight upward adjustments [2] - The company is expected to optimize supply chain efficiency and improve gross margins, enhancing user experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, JD.com achieved revenue of 299.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, with Non-GAAP net profit of 5.80 billion RMB, a decrease of 56.0% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.94%, down from 5.06% in the same period last year. Revenue growth exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, while the decline in net profit was better than expected [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - JD.com's Q3 revenue reached 2990.59 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2260.92 billion RMB (up 10.50% YoY) and 3P revenue at 729.67 billion RMB (up 30.83% YoY). The 1P business saw a 4.92% increase in electronics and home appliances revenue, while general merchandise revenue grew by 18.83%. The 3P business experienced a 23.72% increase in commission and advertising revenue, and a 35.04% increase in logistics service revenue [1] - JD Retail achieved revenue of 2505.77 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with adjusted operating profit of 148.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a profit margin of 5.92%, up from 5.16% in the previous year [1] Logistics and New Business Performance - The logistics segment generated revenue of 55.08 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.28 billion RMB and a profit margin of 2.3%, showing a slight decline [2] - JD's new business revenue reached 15.59 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 214%. The food delivery service has partnered with over 2 million quality restaurants, with daily order volume for the top 300 restaurant brands increasing 13 times since launch. Increased marketing investment and rider welfare have enhanced platform competitiveness [2] Future Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1336.6 billion RMB and 1407.9 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.34% and 5.34%. Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 32.51 billion RMB and 43.51 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of -32.03% and 33.84% [3]

参考可比公司，给予公司2026 年零售+新业务9X PE 估值，加上公司对外股权投资价值计算得公司目标 市值为5676 亿元，对应每股股价195.39 港元（人民币兑港币汇率1.097），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 政策效果不及预期，新业务亏损不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 带电基数拉平承压，日百保持高增，外卖协同效应明显。25Q3 公司实现商品收入2260.9 亿元，其中带 电类1285.9 亿，yoy+4.9%，本季度国补基数拉平后带电增速明显下滑，预计Q4 随着3C 等品类基数拉 平后带电增速环比仍将降速。日百类975.1 亿，yoy+18.8%。主要系外卖协同效应带动的主站流量增 长，据公司披露Q3主站QAC 延续40%以上增速，且AAC 首次突破7 亿大关。来自外卖的用户转化率超 过50%，我们认为由于日百与外卖的协同性更好，外卖转化用户下单日百的比例更大。预计在公司外卖 单量企稳的基础上有望维持日百的稳健增长。同时，主站流量增长对于3P 业务有更明显的促进作用， 叠加公司持续优化主站的广告变现效率以及外卖对物流业务的增量，25Q3 公司实现服务收入增速达到 30.8%，在Q2 已实现高增的基础上仍环 ...

商贸零售 "双十一"收官，以即时零售与 AI 技术推动消费体验升级 1. 2025 年"双十一"大促已经收官，呈现以下特征： （1）在大促周期拉长的背景下，全网 GMV 实现增速较快，京东增速最 快且份额提升。1）根据星图数据显示，2025 年"双十一"购物节，全网 电商销售总额为 16950 亿元，同比增长 14.2%(同比时间为 2025 年 10 月 7 日-11 月 11 日 VS2024 年 10 月 14 日-11 月 11 日)。2）从各平台销 售增速看，根据复旦消费大数据，京东凭借深厚的数码家电品类心智和更 好的服务体验，同比增速最快，达 15%，抖音同比增速 14%，拼多多同 比增速 11%，淘宝天猫同比增速 8%。3）从各平台销售额份额看，京东 份额有所上升，根据复旦消费大数据，淘宝天猫销售额占比为 37%，京东 为 25%，抖音为 15%，拼多多为 9%，其他平台合计占比为 14%。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 （2）即时零售增速翻倍成为新的增量，社区团购大幅下滑。分不同电商 渠道看，根据星图数据显示，2025 年"双十一"购物 ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods to further promote consumption policies [2][3] - The meeting highlights the importance of aligning consumption upgrades with industrial upgrades, focusing on high-quality supply to meet diverse demands [3] - There is a push for innovation in new technologies and business models, particularly in key industries, to develop new products and value-added services [3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stresses the significance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period for establishing a robust financial foundation and enhancing market resilience [4] - The CSRC aims to improve the quality and value of listed companies while ensuring effective regulatory enforcement and deeper market openness [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with severe abnormal fluctuations, including companies like HeFu China and Huasheng Lithium [5] - HeFu China reported a cumulative increase of 256.29% over twelve trading days, significantly outpacing industry and index growth, leading to a trading suspension [5] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics has raised the prices of certain memory chips by up to 60% due to a supply shortage driven by the AI data center construction boom [6] - Analysts predict a potential price increase of 40% to 50% for contracts in the upcoming quarter [6] Group 5 - The U.S. government has signed an executive order to eliminate "reciprocal tariffs" on certain agricultural products, responding to domestic demand and inflation pressures [7] - This adjustment is seen as a reaction to recent electoral losses for the Republican Party, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with rising prices [7] Group 6 - The upcoming LPR announcement on November 20 is highly anticipated, alongside significant earnings reports from major companies like Nvidia and Baidu [9] - The market is closely watching these developments for insights into future economic and monetary policy directions [9] Group 7 - A total of 56 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked this week, amounting to 5.109 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 983.46 billion yuan [13][14] - The companies with the highest unlock values include Ruijie Networks (480.34 billion yuan) and Innovation New Materials (96.31 billion yuan) [14]

证 券 研 究 报 告 结构性景气，AI重塑生态 • 短期关注税负冲击修复+春节催化，长期工艺变迁升级下，行业转向产品设计和品牌化能力比拼，金饰迎来产品及品牌长周期beta，头部 品牌布局全球出海。建议关注：老铺黄金、潮宏基、菜百股份、莱绅通灵、曼卡龙、六福集团、周大生、老凤祥。 • 中国潮玩市场依托成熟产业链加速扩张，全球影响力持续提升，头部优质潮玩品牌正通过IP资源与自研产品力构筑核心护城河，情绪消费 市场潜力仍未充分挖掘。推荐：名创优品、量子之歌。 ◼ 主线3：贸易稳定性提升，供给侧改革做强消费内循环 2026年电商零售投资策略 证券分析师：赵令伊 A0230518100003 研究支持：李秀琳 A0230525070005 2025.11.16 ◼ 主线1：科技消费拓展商业化路径，AI、即时零售挖掘增量 • 平台竞争维度延展，持续投入布局即时零售和AI赛道，即时零售转向理性竞争，AI大模型迭代升级并增强端侧应用部署能力，蓄力中长 期增长，看好平台高质量成长势能。推荐：阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多、京东。 • "AI+"多方位赋能传统消费，政策支持下零售企业转型升级与AI技术企业应用落地需求双向对接，线上线下 ...

数据背后，是消费逻辑的迁移——人们不再为低价冲动，而是在意怎么买、为何买；平台也不再制造紧张 情绪，而是不约而同地比拼谁更稳、更靠谱。一个更理性、更持续的"双十一"在"静默"中成型。 消费心理转变： 11月14日，第17个"双十一"正式落幕，没有"尾款人"的狂欢，也少了半夜蹲点的焦虑。节奏放慢、气氛降 温，但数字依然稳健：星图数据显示，2025年"双十一"全网销售总额达16950亿元，同比增长14.2%，涨幅 略有回落；截至11月5日，淘宝闪购作为流量入口，贡献了超1亿的新客订单；截至11月11日，京东平台家 电家居闪电新品成交额同比增长150%，送装一体服务订单量同比增长超90%…… 据星图数据发布的综合电商平台销售额品类榜单，今年"双十一"家用电器以16.5%的占比居首，手机数码 与服装紧随其后，分别占14.6%、14.0%，三者共占45.1%，较去年有所提高。耐用品消费持续领跑，也反 映出消费者更加注重使用价值与长期投入的倾向。 便宜不再是唯一，"双十一"进入理性花钱时代 "今年'双十一'，你买了吗？" 这句曾经引发全民讨论的话，如今在社交平台上已经激不起波澜。毕竟，曾经一夜之间点燃的购物欲，如 今成了 ...

"万万没想到，这次双11最出风头的居然是京东！"这可能是许多消费者的共同感受。当人们对办了17年 的双11开始审美疲劳时，京东却硬生生靠整"花活儿"演绎了一场高潮迭起的购物盛宴。 从姜妍走秀到张艺兴唱《闹天宫》，从刘宇宁和雷佳音的小剧场到"少爷和我"时隔三年再度合体，京东 今年的打法让人眼前一亮。但这不仅仅是场热闹，背后是京东对当下消费心态的精准把握。 花式打法：从明星IP到"大地星河" 京东今年双11的营销策略堪称一场精准的流量棋局。 刘宇宁、张艺兴、雷佳音、邓超、姜妍、《疯狂动物城》……这些名字每一个都代表了足够数量级的粉 丝群体和足够大的影响力。京东聪明地把他们组合在一起，好比佳节餐桌上琳琅满目的美食，总有一道 能合你胃口。 京东不仅组团刷脸，更把明星效应玩出了新高度。 京东为身高190的刘宇宁专门搭建了一个"站"，让他的"摩饭"们可以抢先看到高清物料、集卡抽专属好 礼、拿到专属饭补，还有专享的超级秒杀。 张艺兴的"贝壳er"们同样享受到了周边、饭补、秒杀等专属福利。 京东不只是简单借用明星影响力，而是构建了一个让粉丝有归属感的体验场。 除了热门明星，京东还打造了令人惊艳的"大地上的星河"营销活动，将高 ...