证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q4 前瞻：国补退坡致 Q4 收入利润承压 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525020001 | 事项： 京东集团即将发布 2025 年四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）国补退坡导致四季度收入表现承压，料收入同比+0.5%，Non-GAAP 净利率同比-3pct： 收入端，我们预计 Q4 京东集团实现营收 3488 亿元，同比+0.5%，主要由于国补高基数影响（2 年 CAGR 为 +7%）以及年货节错期。预计京东零售收入增速-3%，其中带电类目增速双位数负增长，日百类目增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of Google (Alphabet) is approximately $4 trillion, while the combined market capitalization of China's top internet companies is only about $1.8 trillion, indicating a significant disparity in valuation and market perception [25][28][30]. Market Capitalization Comparison - As of the end of 2025 or early 2026, the estimated market capitalizations of major companies are as follows: - Google (Alphabet): ~$40,000 million - Tencent: ~$5,917 million - Alibaba: ~$3,333 million - Xiaomi: ~$1,987 million - Pinduoduo: ~$1,486 million - Meituan: ~$975 million - NetEase: ~$852 million - JD: ~$471 million - Trip.com: ~$383 million - Kuaishou: ~$345 million - Tencent Music: ~$302 million - The total market capitalization of the top 10 Chinese internet companies is estimated to be around $17,000–20,000 million, which is more than 2.2 times less than that of Google [28][3][25]. Competitive Landscape - The primary issue in the Chinese internet sector is not a lack of effort but rather a misdirection in competitive strategies, focusing excessively on user acquisition, subsidies, and speed, leading to a dangerous cycle of competition [30][5]. - This competitive model, which relies on free services to gain scale and eliminate competitors, is damaging long-term sustainability in the industry [31][32]. Impact on Entrepreneurship - The current environment is systematically clearing out entrepreneurs, reducing their roles to mere tools for larger platforms, and stifling genuine innovation [34][37]. - The lack of reasonable pricing, stable profits, and long-term investment in research and development is leading to fewer companies being profitable and surviving [35][36]. Employment Challenges - The concentration of the industry into a few dominant platforms is contributing to job losses, with monopolistic structures eliminating positions rather than technological advancements like AI [39][10]. - As industry profits shrink, salaries are also compressed, leading to fewer job opportunities for young people [11][39]. Comparison with Google - Google’s strength lies not in the number of applications but in its focus on foundational capabilities, allowing ecosystem partners to thrive and generating productivity-based revenue rather than merely capturing attention [40][41]. - The competitive landscape in China, characterized by internal strife, hinders the emergence of globally competitive companies [41][42]. Future Outlook - If the current competitive practices continue, the industry may end up with a few platforms and many dependent entities, leading to a degraded ecosystem rather than a mature industry [42][45]. - A healthy internet ecosystem should support entrepreneurship and job creation, rather than relying solely on free services as a competitive tool [44][51].

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the internet sector, particularly e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-related markets, driven by advancements in AI applications and product innovations [3][17][22]. E-commerce - The report continues to recommend Alibaba in the e-commerce sector, highlighting the recent AI application developments that are expected to catalyze growth. The MAU of the Qianwen app has surpassed 100 million, indicating strong user engagement [3][17]. - JD.com is projected to experience marginal improvements after a weak growth quarter in Q4 2025, maintaining a buy rating [3][17]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent are noted for their strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving. The report anticipates the release of new games from both companies, enhancing their product offerings [3][17][22]. - Tencent's game "Delta Action" is expected to become a significant title alongside "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3][17]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [3][17]. Short Videos - Kuaishou is recognized for its stable core business and technological leadership in AI, with ongoing efforts to optimize user engagement and monetization through advanced recommendation systems [3][17][22]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is expanding its overseas supply chain, with recent shipments from partners in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, indicating a robust international strategy [3][17]. Long Videos - The report notes a recovery in the number of TV series registrations, with multiple platforms releasing high-quality content, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like iQIYI and Mango TV [3][17]. Music Streaming - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music have shown stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to a valuation adjustment. The report emphasizes the importance of quality content in driving subscription growth [3][17][22]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its growth trajectory into 2026, with a focus on leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, as well as emerging players with strong product pipelines [3][22]. Advertising - The report indicates stable advertising spending from Q1 flash purchase advertisers, with AI applications like Canva and Afu being utilized in advertising strategies, suggesting continued growth in the advertising sector [3][22]. AI Developments - The report highlights the current phase of intensive AI development in China, recommending attention to companies involved in AI model iterations and applications across various sectors [3][22].

以下文章来源于首席品牌评论 ，作者首席品牌评论 首席品牌评论 . 热门品牌案例，专业深度评论。在这里，读懂品牌之道！ 作者 ：首席品牌评论 来源：首席品牌评论 2026开年的物流江湖，资本的硝烟已然汹涌。 ------------------------------ 一边是顺丰与极兔83亿港元相互持股的跨界联姻，忙着搭建全球协同网络；另一边，京东物流用 37.97亿元现金，给德邦股份的A股生涯画上了句号。 1月13日晚，德邦股份宣布拟主动撤回A股上市地位。京东物流用37.97亿元现金收购方案，以每股 19元、溢价超35%的代价，将这家老牌快运巨头的剩余股权尽数纳入囊中。 从2022年京东系首次入主德邦，到如今彻底完成私有化闭环，刘强东用四年时间，总计超120亿元 的投入，下完了这盘物流版图的大棋。 01 零担之王 要读懂这场收购的重量，必先回望德邦的兴衰轨迹。 1996年，厦门大学会计系毕业的崔维星，揣着20万积蓄在广州创办"崔氏货运"。从4人的小作坊起 步，靠广东航空货运代理起家，用"直营网点+标准化运营"的组合拳，在散乱的零担货运市场杀出 一条血路。 所谓的零担货运，就是你的货不够装满一整辆车时，物流公司 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/于伯韬 核心观点 我们预计京东2025Q4 收入同比增长1.2%至3510.14 亿元，Non-GAAP 净利润为15.01 亿元，对应净利率 为0.43%，去年同期为3.25%。本季度日百品类景气延续，维持两位数增长，带电品类受国补高基数拖 累，同比两位数负增长。利润端，四季度新业务整体环比减亏，其中外卖业务减亏较为显著，被京喜和 国际业务亏损增加部分对冲。展望2026 年，预计集团利润会显著修复，幅度具体仍取决于外卖业务减 亏和出海等其他新业务投入增加的综合影响。 简评 2025Q4 前瞻： 预计京东2025Q4 收入同比增长1.2%至3510.14 亿元，Non-GAAP 净利润为15.01 亿元， 对应净利率为0.43%，去年同期为3.25%。 带电品类受国补高基数拖累，日百品类维持高景气。我们预计本季度京东集团收入同比增长1.2%，京 东零售收入同比下降2.7%。分结构看，日百品类景气延续，维持两位数增长，增速环比略有回落，主 要受春节错位影响。带电品类受国补高基数拖累，同比两位数负增长，其中手机品类维持高景气，但家 电表现显著疲弱。 外卖业务亏损收窄，京喜和国际 ...

公司及业务介绍 京东保险代理是 京东旗下全国性专业保险销售代理公司 ，依托京东集团品牌及经营优势，不 断创新产品、服务和销售模式。 寿险业务部基于京东丰富的线上线下场景和技术能力，聚焦京东客户服务，打造一支真正基于 诚信、专业、中立 的平台化经营和自营"京东保险顾问"队伍，助力"买保险，上京东"的京东 保险品牌心智建设。 3、自媒体经验： 拥有个人运营的社交媒体账号，且口播出镜视频不低于10条，有持续的内容 创作习惯。 4、自媒体能力：具备基础的视频拍摄、剪辑能力，熟悉主流平台的内容调性与传播逻辑。 5、意愿强度：对通过新媒体打造个人IP、赋能保险销售有极高意愿和热情，并愿意投入时间 精力。 6、自驱力强，目标感明确，追求可持续高收入、个人IP价值与轻型组织影响力。 7、已开放城市：北京、上海、广州、深圳、南京 【岗位职责】 招聘岗位：融合保顾（员工制）、品牌推荐官（代理制） 岗位一：融合保顾 【招聘要求】 1、全日制本科及以上学历（硕士优先），5年以上银行、保险高客、律所、高端教育、医疗 等高净值服务经验； 2、近五年工作履历稳定（跳槽≤2次），既往年收入处于行业前列； 1、为京东生态筛选的中高端客户提供保 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周五，美股三大指数齐跌。恒生指数ADR下跌，按比例计算，收报26581.34点，较香港收市跌263.62点或0.98%。 大型蓝筹股多数下跌，汇丰控股收报128.695港元，较香港收市涨0.15%;腾讯控股收报612.833港元，较香港收市跌0.76%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价(HKD) | 较浅 较港股升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | 0) 00700 | 617.500 | -4.500 | -0.72% | TCEHY | 612.833 | -4.667 | | 2 | M-BBBB08 | 09988 | 166.200 | +1.600 | 0.97% | BABA | 161.200 | -5.000 | | 3 | 汇丰控股 | 00005 | 128.500 | +0.300 | 0.23% | HSBC | 128.695 | +0.195 | | 4 | 建设银行 | 0093 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized maintaining market stability and enhancing monitoring and regulation to prevent excessive speculation and market manipulation [3] - Canada and China reached a consensus on deepening economic and trade cooperation, signing the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," which includes an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles from China with a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff [3] Group 2 - The State Council of China is focusing on boosting consumption and has outlined measures to clear overdue payments to businesses and ensure wage payments to migrant workers [4] - The Ministry of Commerce announced stronger support for green and smart product consumption through a recycling program for consumer goods [4] Group 3 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is working on optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned enterprises, focusing on enhancing core business strengths [5] - The Market Supervision Administration has introduced new guidelines for recognizing illegal gains in market regulation, effective from March 20 [5] Group 4 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,101.91 points, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw slight declines [6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.29% but showing a weekly gain of 2.34% [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development highlighted significant investment opportunities in urban renewal projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11] - The Ministry of Finance extended tax incentives for public rental housing, exempting certain taxes to promote construction [11] Group 6 - The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance reported a 60.1% year-on-year increase in the cumulative production of power and energy storage batteries in 2025 [12] - The China Securities Association announced new rules allowing certain individual investors to redeem public pension fund shares early under specific conditions [12] Group 7 - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, with potential adjustments depending on labor market conditions [15][16] - The U.S. Senate approved funding for federal research institutions, rejecting previous budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration [16] Group 8 - The Chinese bond market showed signs of warming, with yields generally declining and the central bank conducting a net injection of liquidity [20] - Barclays analysts forecast a total issuance of U.S. corporate bonds to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, marking an 11.8% increase year-on-year [20]

一边是以近1.16万亿营收登顶的京东，一边是高盛眼中增长潜力巨大的腾讯阿里，中国企业正用两种截然不同的商业哲学，在全球经济版图上刻下自己的 坐标。 2025年8月，两份重量级榜单几乎同时发布，却给出了两个不同的"中国民企第一"答案。 全国工商联发布的"2025中国民营企业500强"榜单上，京东集团以1.16万亿人民币营收首次问鼎榜首，反超阿里巴巴与华为。而高盛同期发布的2026中国 市场展望报告中，"民营十巨头"名单却由腾讯、阿里巴巴、比亚迪等领衔，以投资价值和增长潜力为标准重新排序。 这场看似矛盾的榜单对决，实则揭示了中国民营经济正在上演的两种发展哲学。 01 榜首之争：两个榜单，两种标准 全国工商联的"民企500强"榜单基于对6379家年营收超10亿元企业的调研编制，是一个以营收规模为核心的评价体系。 在这个体系中，京东登顶标志着一种模式的胜利：这家以物流重资产和自营模式著称的企业，终于在规模上超越了所有对手。 京东的1.16万亿营收背后，是近67万名员工，相当于一个中等城市的人口规模；是每年超过千亿元的人力成本投入；是覆盖全国的物流网络和仓储系统。 与此形成鲜明对比的是高盛的报告。这家国际投行的"民营十 ...

1月16日，由北京市商务局指导，北京日报报业集团和北京市商业联合会共同主办，北京商报社承办的 2026北京商业品牌大会暨2025年度（第二十一届）北京十大商业品牌揭晓活动在北京国际饭店成功举 办。本次活动以"新需求 新供给"为主题，政府领导、商业专家及企业高层代表齐聚一堂，共同见证了 代表北京商业最高水平的"2025年度北京十大商业品牌"等优秀品牌案例的揭晓。 北京市商务局党组成员、副局长石崇远 活动现场，北京市商务局党组成员、副局长石崇远从"品质、品位、品牌"角度致辞，为北京商业的高质 量发展指明了着力方向。他表示，在北京，涌现出一批消费地标品牌，创新出一批潮玩时尚品牌，拥有 着一批特色烟火品牌。从新锐地标到时尚潮玩，再到街头小店，这些行业的成功案例证明了品牌的建设 没有捷径，只有坚守品质，提升品位，才能在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出。石崇远强调，北京的商业图 景迎来深刻可喜的变化，品牌越来越有"层次感"，体验越来越有"舒适感"，环境越来越有"归属感"。 2025年是北京商业奋楫争先的一年，围绕"潮尚""聚变""破局"等关键词，北京十大商业品牌用不断创新 来实践"以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求"。其中， ...