浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 京东（9618.HK/JD.US）：以旧换新政 策持续加码，维持行业首选 我们看好公司持续且直接受益于以旧换新补贴力度和范围的进一步 扩大，核心带电品类或推动四季度收入提速，上调目标价至 178 港 元/46 美元。 以旧换新加码，政策利好持续。近日，国家发改委和财政部宣布进一 步扩大以旧换新政策，其中包括加力支持家电产品以旧换新，新增了 微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等 4 类家电产品纳入补贴范围；以 及实施手机等数码产品购新补贴，对个人消费者购买手机、平板、智 能手表手环等 3 类数码产品，按产品销售价格的 15%给予补贴，每位 消费者每类产品可补贴 1 件，每件补贴不超过 500 元。随着今年以旧 换新政策覆盖范围的进一步扩大，公司核心带电品类将直接受益于此。 国补推动带电品类明显改善，我们预计四季度收入提速。得益于以旧 换新政策推动，我们上调四季度收入预测至人民币 3336 亿元，同比 增长 9%，继续提速，调整后净利润预测至 94 亿元，同比增长 11%。 我们预计带电品类增长将明显改善，主要受益于国补推动家电和电脑 等类目销售增长；预计日百品类保持良好增长势 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年01月19日 优于大市 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2024Q4 前瞻：收入利润表现亮眼，以旧换新带动 Q4 电商份额 增长 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 联系人： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 京东集团即将发布 2024 年四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）Q4 收入利润表现亮眼，料收入同比+9%，Non-GAAP 净利润同比+12%：收入端，我们 预计 Q4 京东集团实现营收 3337 亿元，同比+9%，主要由于国补带动京东零售收入增速同环比大幅提升 （23Q4/24Q3 收入 yoy+3.6%/5.1%）。预计京东零售收入增速+10%，其中带电类目增速两位数增长，日百 类目高个位 ...

证券研究报告 京东集团-SW (9618 HK/JD US) 4Q24 前瞻：基本面修复势头稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 1 月 | 17 日│中国香港/美国 | 互联网 | 在以旧换新行动助力下，京东展现出稳健的基本面修复势头，并持续优化利 润的释放与在长期增长领域上的再投入。结合估值性价比、股东回报有效性、 业绩稳健性等因素，在已覆盖的电商平台子板块公司中，我们维持京东为首 推标的。短期角度上，我们认为京东所具备的强顺周期属性有望帮助其在进 一步发力的消费政策刺激下兑现估值与基本面的向上修复。长期角度上，我 们认为以旧换新行动也为京东进一步发力用户增长与渗透、扩充品类供给提 供了较好支持，从而助力其打开长期增长天花板。 4Q24 前瞻：收入增速进一步改善，调整后净利润表现或好于一致预期 我们预计京东集团 4Q24 总收入同增 9.2%至 3,343 亿元（3Q24：+5.1% yoy），收入增速在以旧换新行动助力下进一步修复。我们预计京东集团调整 后净利润同比增长 17.5%至 98.9 亿元，主要得益于京东零售及京 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong supply chain and user experience advantages as key drivers for sustained profit growth [6][3] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 reached RMB 260.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, driven by its focus on supply chain capabilities and logistics infrastructure [3] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 13.08 billion, up 17.9% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 5.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [3] - The company's retail segment achieved a revenue of RMB 224.99 billion, with a stable operating margin, while the logistics segment saw a revenue of RMB 44.4 billion and an operating margin of 4.7%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company repurchased approximately USD 390 million worth of Class A ordinary shares from July to September 2024 and announced a new share repurchase plan of up to USD 5 billion over the next 36 months [3] Financial Performance - The company's total assets stood at RMB 643.559 billion, with a net asset attributable to the parent company of RMB 229.082 billion [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 11,367 billion in 2024, RMB 12,076 billion in 2025, and RMB 12,916 billion in 2026, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company projected to be RMB 44.928 billion, RMB 47.952 billion, and RMB 51.016 billion respectively [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2026, with Non-GAAP net profit margin projected to be 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and 3.9% in 2026 [5] Segment Performance - The company's product revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 204.61 billion, up 4.8% year-on-year, with electronics and home appliances revenue reaching RMB 122.56 billion, a 2.7% increase, and general merchandise revenue growing 8.0% to RMB 82.05 billion [3] - Service revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 55.77 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, with platform advertising revenue increasing 6.3% to RMB 20.76 billion and logistics and other revenue growing 6.5% to RMB 35.01 billion [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from macro policies such as the "trade-in" policy, which is likely to further stimulate consumption upgrades [3] - The company's supply chain and user experience advantages are expected to continue driving profit growth, with revenue and profit projections showing steady increases over the next three years [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD com Inc with a target price of HKD 195 per share, implying a 28% upside [9][89] Core Views - JD com reported strong 3Q24 results with revenue of RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, and Non GAAP net profit of RMB 13 2 billion, up 23 9% YoY [2][4] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 17 3%, up 1 7 percentage points YoY, driven by supply chain optimization and operational efficiency [4][8] - JD com's 3P ecosystem showed significant improvement, with third party merchant users growing over 20% YoY and order volume increasing over 30% YoY [4][18] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue breakdown: Direct sales revenue was RMB 204 6 billion, with household appliances and 3C up 2 7% YoY, and fast moving consumer goods up 8 0% YoY [5][19] - Service revenue grew 6 5% YoY to RMB 55 8 billion, with platform and advertising revenue up 6 3% YoY and logistics and other services up 6 5% YoY [5][20] - The company's Non GAAP net profit margin improved to 5 1%, up 0 8 percentage points YoY [8] Share Repurchase - JD com repurchased 31 0 million Class A shares totaling USD 390 million between June 30 and September 30, 2024, representing 1 1% of outstanding shares [3][17] - A new share repurchase program was adopted in September 2024, allowing the company to repurchase up to USD 5 billion worth of shares over the next 36 months [3][17] Business Segments - JD Retail's operating profit margin remained stable at 5 2% YoY, while JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly to 4 7%, up 4 0 percentage points YoY [8] - The company's core categories, including 3C and household appliances, showed improved YoY growth, while supermarket and apparel categories achieved double digit growth [4][18] Valuation and Forecast - The report estimates JD com's 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit at RMB 45 1 billion, RMB 46 6 billion, and RMB 50 4 billion, respectively [9][20] - A sum of the parts valuation approach was used, assigning a 14x PE multiple to the retail business for 2025 and valuing subsidiaries based on their latest post investment valuations [9][20] - The target price of HKD 195 per share implies a 2025E market capitalization of HKD 620 1 billion [9]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 260.4 billion yuan (yoy +5.1%), with Non-GAAP operating profit at 13.1 billion yuan (yoy +17.9%) and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.2 billion yuan (yoy +23.9%) [1] - JD Retail's operating margin remained stable at 5.2% yoy, with a sequential improvement of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of September 2024 was 33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 billion yuan from June 2024 and 5.8 billion yuan yoy, primarily due to delayed accounts payable and inventory buildup for the trade-in program [1] - The trade-in policy drove a rebound in 3C and home appliance revenue, with 3C and home appliance sales reaching 122.6 billion yuan (yoy +2.7%), reversing the -4.6% decline in Q2 2024 [1] - JD Logistics saw a significant improvement in profitability, with operating profit surging 624% yoy to 2.09 billion yuan and operating margin increasing to 4.7% from 0.7% in Q3 2023 [1] - JD's Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 exceeded expectations, with active users growing by double digits, daily active buyers increasing by over 20%, and purchase frequency also growing by double digits [1] Business Performance by Segment JD Retail - Revenue: 225 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) [1] - Operating profit: 11.6 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) [1] - Operating margin: 5.2% (flat yoy) [1] JD Logistics - Revenue: 44.4 billion yuan (yoy +6.6%) [1] - Operating profit: 2.09 billion yuan (yoy +624%) [1] - Operating margin: 4.7% (up from 0.7% in Q3 2023) [1] New Businesses (Including Dada, Jingxi, Overseas, and JD Property) - Revenue: 5 billion yuan (yoy -25.7%) [1] - Operating loss: 600 million yuan [1] Key Strategies - Low-price strategy: JD has implemented a matrix of low-price activities, including the "JD Super 18" event every month, weekly "Black Friday" promotions, and daily "Midnight Sale" events [1] - Trade-in program: The policy has successfully driven growth in the 3C and home appliance categories [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.26%, 5.09%, and 5.00%, respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.7 billion yuan, 49.2 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - Long-term profit margin target is set at high single digits [1] Revenue Breakdown by Category Electronics and Home Appliances - Revenue: 553.3 billion yuan (2024E), 568.3 billion yuan (2025E), 585.3 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 2.7% (2024E), 2.7% (2025E), 3.0% (2026E) [6] Daily Necessities - Revenue: 360 billion yuan (2024E), 387 billion yuan (2025E), 414.1 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 8.3% (2024E), 7.5% (2025E), 7.0% (2026E) [6] Platform and Advertising Services - Revenue: 88 billion yuan (2024E), 91.6 billion yuan (2025E), 95.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 3.9% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.0% (2026E) [6] Logistics and Other Services - Revenue: 140.3 billion yuan (2024E), 152.9 billion yuan (2025E), 165.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 9.0% (2024E), 9.0% (2025E), 8.0% (2026E) [6] Key Assumptions - Electronics and home appliances: Continued growth driven by trade-in policies and government subsidies, with 3C and home appliance revenue expected to increase in Q4 2024 [5] - Daily necessities: Lower shipping thresholds and optimized platform rules are expected to sustain a 7%+ GMV growth rate for 2025-2026 [5]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 29 年 月 日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 品类持续扩张，利润结构改善 京东发布 2024Q3 财报业绩。京东 2024Q3 录得收入 2604 亿元，同比增 长 5.1%。按集团构成角度，京东零售/京东物流/新业务各录得收入 2250/444/50 亿元，同比增长 6.1%/6.6%/-25.7%。按业务类型角度，商 品收入/服务收入各录得 2046/558 亿元，同比增长 4.8%/6.5%。 公司本季录得经营利润 120 亿，其中京东零售/京东物流/新业务的经营利 润率各约 5.2%/4.7%/-12.4%。本季公司录得 non-GAAP 归母净利 132 亿 元，同比增长 24%，non-GAAP 净利润率约 5.1%。 京东零售：持续拓展品类。1）带电品类本季度收入同比增长 2.7%；根据 公司业绩会公开披露，7/8/9 月逐季改善，我们认为其中以旧换新政策取 得良好效果。2）日用百货品类本季度收入同比增长 8.0%，其中商超品类、 服装和运动户外品类都实现了双位数的收入同比增长，这归功于公司持续 扩充商品品类的努力。3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 178.4 per share, based on a 2024 PE multiple of 11x for the retail business and a valuation of RMB 525 billion [2][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 260.39 billion (YoY +5.1%) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13.17 billion (YoY +23.9%) [1] - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 224.99 billion (YoY +6.1%) and operating profit of RMB 11.61 billion (YoY +5.5%), driven by strong growth in electronics and supermarket categories [1] - The logistics segment saw a significant improvement in profitability, with revenue of RMB 44.4 billion (YoY +6.6%) and operating profit of RMB 2.09 billion (YoY +624.3%) [1] Business Segment Analysis Retail Business - Revenue reached RMB 224.99 billion in Q3 2024, with electronics and home appliances benefiting from government subsidies and the Double 11 shopping festival [1] - The segment is expected to maintain strong growth in Q4, supported by expanded subsidy coverage and increased consumer awareness [1] Logistics Business - Achieved revenue of RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with operating profit surging 624.3% YoY to RMB 2.09 billion, driven by scale effects and supply chain optimization [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Electronics revenue grew 2.7% YoY to RMB 122.56 billion, supported by the government's appliance replacement policy [1] - Daily necessities revenue increased 8.0% YoY to RMB 82.05 billion, with supermarket and apparel categories maintaining double-digit growth [1] Service Revenue Breakdown - Platform revenue grew 6.3% YoY to RMB 20.76 billion, driven by a 20%+ increase in third-party merchant users and double-digit growth in advertising revenue [1] - Logistics and other service revenue increased 6.5% YoY to RMB 35.01 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1,138.5 billion, RMB 1,209.8 billion, and RMB 1,287.8 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit of RMB 42.1 billion, RMB 47.2 billion, and RMB 50.7 billion [2][9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026, while net margin is forecasted to increase from 2.23% to 3.69% over the same period [3] Valuation - The company's retail business is valued at RMB 315.665 billion based on a PE multiple, with a total equity value of RMB 524.986 billion [13] - The target price of HKD 178.4 per share implies a 29.7% upside from the current price of HKD 137.5 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades JD com (9618 HK/JD US) to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 162/USD 42 [4][5] Core Views - JD com's core categories, particularly digital appliances, are benefiting from the trade-in policy, driving a recovery in sales [4] - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, with digital appliances growing 2 7% YoY [4] - Daily necessities revenue grew 8 0% YoY, with supermarket, apparel, and sports/outdoor categories achieving double-digit growth [4] - Active users grew double-digit YoY for four consecutive quarters, with a 20% YoY increase in shopping users during Double 11 [4] - Q3 2024 gross margin reached 17 3%, up 1 7pp YoY, with adjusted net profit growing 24% YoY to RMB 13 2 billion [5] - JD Retail's operating margin improved by 2 6pp YoY to 5 2%, while JD Logistics' operating margin increased by 4 0pp YoY to 4 7% [5] - The company repurchased USD 3 9 billion in Q3 2024, totaling USD 3 6 billion in the first three quarters [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 5 7% YoY in Q4 2024, with full-year revenue projected at RMB 1,135 4 billion for FY24E [4][7] - Gross profit is forecasted to reach RMB 178 3 billion in FY24E, up 11 7% YoY [7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow 27 4% YoY to RMB 44 8 billion in FY24E [7] - The company aims for a high single-digit net profit margin in the long term, driven by economies of scale, product mix optimization, and 3P contributions [5] Valuation and Market Expectations - The target price of HKD 162/USD 42 implies a 10x FY24E P/E ratio [5] - The current price of HKD 137 2/USD 35 19 offers a potential upside of 18%/19% [8] - The 52-week price range for JD com is HKD 81 55-192 3/USD 20 8-47 8 [8] Industry Context - The report covers JD com within the broader internet and e-commerce sector, highlighting its competitive positioning and growth drivers [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD com Inc -SW (09618) with a 6-month target price of 132 6 HKD [1] Core Views - JD com s Q3 2024 performance showed significant improvement in profitability with a 23 9% YoY increase in Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reaching 13 2 billion RMB [1] - The company s revenue for Q3 2024 reached 260 4 billion RMB a 5 1% YoY growth with service revenue growing 6 5% YoY to 55 8 billion RMB [1] - JD com initiated a $5 billion share repurchase plan with $3 6 billion already repurchased by September 30 2024 representing 8 1% of its outstanding shares as of December 31 2023 [1] Operational Highlights - JD com benefited from the "trade-in" policy with 3C and home appliance categories showing accelerated growth and double-digit increases in active users and shopping frequency for three consecutive quarters [1] - During the 11 11 shopping festival JD com s user count increased by over 20% YoY [1] - JD Retail achieved a 6 1% YoY revenue growth to 225 billion RMB with operating profit increasing 5 5% YoY to 11 608 billion RMB [1] - The electronics and home appliance category grew 2 7% YoY to 122 56 billion RMB while daily necessities and groceries grew 8 0% YoY to 82 053 billion RMB [1] - Third-party merchant orders grew over 30% YoY with user count increasing over 20% YoY [1] JD Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue grew 6 6% YoY to 44 4 billion RMB with operating profit reaching 2 086 billion RMB significantly exceeding market expectations of 1 265 billion RMB [1] - JD Logistics expanded its overseas supply chain network opening new self-operated warehouses in the US and Malaysia and planning to increase global self-operated warehouse area by over 100% by the end of 2025 [1] Strategic Initiatives - JD com is focusing on building a second growth curve in categories like daily necessities and apparel with apparel category showing double-digit growth [1] - The company is increasing marketing resources for JD Supermarket aiming for over 30% share of content marketing resources within JD and a 30% increase in external marketing investments [1] - JD Logistics is advancing its "Global Weaving Plan" to enhance its global supply chain network and support Chinese brands in going global [1] Financial Projections - The report adjusts JD com s 2024-2026 revenue forecasts to 11 357/12 335/12 652 billion RMB with YoY growth rates of 4 7%/8 6%/2 6% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 44 9/49 5/50 8 billion RMB [1]