Tesla(US:TSLA) Huajing Securities·2024-10-17 23:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of US$280.86, indicating an upside potential of approximately 28% from the current price of US$219.16 [1][8]. Core Insights - Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi products, including the Cybercab and Robovan models, which are expected to be a commercial turning point for the Robotaxi business [1][6]. - The Cybercab is projected to start mass production in 2026 at a cost not exceeding US$30,000, while the Robovan is designed to accommodate up to 20 passengers or be used for cargo transport [1][6]. - The report slightly adjusts the 2024 delivery forecast to 1,788,656 units, leading to an increase in revenue projections to US$102.02 billion [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$102,019 million, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [7]. - The Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is projected at US$8,392 million, with an EPS of US$2.63 [7][8]. - The report maintains the 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts unchanged, with EPS estimates of US$3.41 and US$4.56 respectively [7][8]. Valuation - The valuation for Tesla's automotive business is maintained at a P/E ratio of 90, while the energy business is valued at a P/S ratio of 10, leading to the updated target price of US$280.86 [8][9]. - The total valuation for Tesla is calculated at US$891,301 million, with a per-share target price derived from the total valuation divided by the total shares outstanding [9][10]. Market Performance - Tesla's stock has shown a significant price range over the past year, with a 52-week high of US$271.00 and a low of US$138.80 [1]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at US$18,708 million, indicating strong market activity [1].