CFMOTO(SH:603129) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-18 00:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] - The target price is set at 189.13 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [5] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance is strong, driven by new product cycles in both two-wheeled and four-wheeled segments, with sales growth supported by both domestic and export markets [3][10] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 11.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.081 billion CNY, up 34.87% [10] - The company reported a Q3 2024 revenue of 3.92 billion CNY, reflecting a 36.11% year-on-year increase, although it decreased by 12.23% quarter-on-quarter [10] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 gross margin was 31.57%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 9.74%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s operating expenses have improved, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 8.53%, 3.27%, and 6.95% respectively, showing year-on-year reductions [10] Product and Market Dynamics - The company continues to enhance its product structure, with the 450 series products performing exceptionally well and new platforms set to launch in 2024-2025 [10] - The four-wheeled market is stabilizing, and the company is benefiting from an upgraded product structure, which lays a solid foundation for revenue and performance [10] - The company is expanding its product range in the new energy sector and strengthening its channel development, gradually entering a harvest period [10] Financial Forecast - The company’s EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 9.03 CNY, 11.19 CNY, and 13.67 CNY respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 21 times for 2024 [10][11] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.67 billion CNY, 17.60 billion CNY, and 20.77 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 20.0%, and 18.0% respectively [11]