NBJF(603997) 长江证券·2024-10-18 00:50Investment Rating - Buy rating, first coverage [4] Core Views - The seat industry is a large market with high technical barriers, and domestic companies are emerging as disruptors [4] - The global seat market is expected to reach 1512 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.2% from 2023 to 2030 [4] - The company has acquired Grammer, breaking through technical and customer resource barriers, and has secured multiple projects with new energy vehicle brands and traditional luxury car brands, with total project lifecycle revenue exceeding 60 billion yuan [4] - The company delivered 65,000 sets of seat products from May to December 2023, with an average price exceeding 10,000 yuan per set [4] Industry Overview - The seat industry is highly concentrated, with the top five global players (Lear, Adient, Faurecia, Toyota Boshoku, and Magna) holding 78% of the market share in 2022 [4] - The profitability of the seat industry is highest in the Asia region, with Adient's Asia region EBITDA margin reaching 15.0% in 2023, significantly higher than EMEA and North America [4] - The seat industry is labor-intensive with high R&D expenditures, and the Asia region has the highest profitability [4] Company Performance - The company has optimized its overseas Grammer operations, with profitability expected to continue improving [5] - Grammer, a global commercial vehicle seat giant, has a global market share of over 10% in commercial vehicle seats in 2023 [5] - The company achieved a turnaround in 2021, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 130 million yuan, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 480 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 162.6% [5] - The company's net profit margin attributable to shareholders reached 2.2% in 2023, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [5] Product Expansion - The company is a leader in the headrest and armrest industry, with global market shares of 17.9% and 9.4% respectively in 2023 [6] - The company has expanded into air conditioning vents and car refrigerators, securing multiple projects and opening up new growth opportunities [6] - The global market for headrests and armrests is expected to reach 17 billion yuan and 23.4 billion yuan respectively by 2025 [6] Investment Recommendation - The company is a rising star in domestic seat manufacturing, with significant profit elasticity expected from overseas integration [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 billion yuan, 9.0 billion yuan, and 13.3 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 70.7X, 18.0X, and 12.1X [7] - The company is given a "Buy" rating for the first time [7]