Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (SZ:301358) Soochow Securities·2024-10-18 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hunan Youneng is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Hunan Youneng is expected to maintain high growth in shipments for 2024-2025, driven by strong demand in lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries, particularly from overseas energy storage and domestic automotive consumption policies [3] - The company is approaching a profitability inflection point, with expectations of a recovery in profits as lithium carbonate prices stabilize and high-end product ratios increase [3] - The company is leveraging its technological advantages in high-density LiFePO4 batteries, which are expected to enhance its market leadership [3] - Management efficiency and an increasing degree of integration are expected to solidify cost advantages for the company [3][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 41,358 million RMB in 2023 to 23,545 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 29,523 million RMB in 2025 and 38,380 million RMB in 2026 [2][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to 951.48 million RMB in 2024, followed by a significant increase to 2,201.60 million RMB in 2025 and 3,507.32 million RMB in 2026 [2][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to drop to 1.26 RMB in 2024, then rise to 2.91 RMB in 2025 and 4.63 RMB in 2026 [2][9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 25.95 for 2024, 11.22 for 2025, and 7.04 for 2026 [2][9] - The target price for 2025 is set at 52 RMB, based on a P/E of 18x [4] Market Data - The closing price is 32.61 RMB, with a one-year low of 22.28 RMB and a high of 44.71 RMB [6] - The market capitalization is approximately 24,694.02 million RMB [6] Basic Data - The book value per share is 15.05 RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.56% [7]