GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-18 03:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][12] Core Views - The company has received the mining license for the Marang No. 1 coal mine, which is expected to enhance coal production capacity [3][12] - Coal and natural gas prices are stabilizing, with demand expected to rise due to the upcoming winter heating season, potentially driving prices upward [7][12] - The company is set to invest in a 15 million tons per year coal quality utilization demonstration project, which will leverage its rich oil-gas coal resources and promote sustainable development [11][12] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - The production from the Baishihu and Marang coal mines is gradually increasing, with Q3 coal sales growing by 95% year-on-year and 96% quarter-on-quarter. Q4 sales are expected to continue this upward trend [3][4] - The company achieved coal sales of 13.14 million tons in Q3, with September sales reaching a record high of 5.296 million tons, marking a 125.9% year-on-year increase [4][12] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 45.2 billion, 58.6 billion, and 72.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.9 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan [3][12] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.74, 0.88, and 1.05 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.0, 8.5, and 7.1 times [3][12] Market Conditions - The upcoming winter heating season is anticipated to increase demand for coal and natural gas, providing support for prices amid supply constraints due to safety inspections in coal mines [7][12] - The company’s existing coal mines have excellent quality and abundant reserves, which are expected to enhance coal heating value and production capacity [4][11]